Shore Capital Management LLC

On March 26th, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the February regional and state unemployment rates.

At the national level the BLS reported the February unemployment rate at 9.7%, unchanged from January. 27 states reported increases in the February unemployment rate from January. 16 states reported no change for February. 7 states and the District of Columbia reported rate decreases.

Read more

On March 18, 2010 the CME Group announced they would expand electronic trading hours for the dollar-denominated Nikkei 225 futures contract beginning April 12, 2010.

Scott Warren, Managing Director of Equity Index Products and Services stated “Building on our longstanding relationship with Nikkei Inc., we are pleased to be able to offer customers nearly 24-hour access to dollar-denominated Nikkei 225 futures."

Read more

TradeTech Derivatives: Foreign Exchange & Listed Derivatives
Strategies For Increasing Derivative Trading Profits - Focusing On FX, Futures & Options

Date: April 7 - 8, 2010

If you are involved in derivative trading related to foreign exchange and listed derivatives, then TradeTech Derivatives: Foreign Exchange and Listed Derivatives may be of interest regarding advancement in technology, strategies to enhance the performance of your trading desk and regulations affecting the financial markets.

Read more

As the emini S&P futures contract (basis June) bottomed on 2/5/10, the market has rallied for the last several weeks. We believe the market may be becoming a bit overbought. We are not looking for a major correction in the market, but more of a minor retracement.

Initial support is found in the 1142 to 1139 range. If this is broken, the next level of support is found in the 1137 to 1134 range. If 1136.50 is taken out, there is potential the market could reach 1128 to 1122.

Initial resistance is found at 1149 to 1152. The next level of resistance is 1154 to 1157. There is very strong resistance at 1160.

We received a buy signal on crude (basis April) on 2/16/10. After crude broke above the $80.00 to $80.40 range last week, we see the next level of resistance at $81.90 to $82.50. If that level is broken, the next resistance level is $82.70 to $83.00.

Our first target of $80 was hit. Our next target is $82.70 to $84.50. It is possible we could see $88 to $92.

Nearby support for the market is found at $81.40 to $81. If that level is broken, the next support level is $80.30 to $80.00.

As we wrote about on 3/4/10, the equity markets were waiting for the release of the February jobs report. There was a general sense last week that the unemployment rate and jobs growth could be a higher rate and increased negative jobs growth due to weather related issues.

The market was expecting 9.8% unemployment and a job loss of 50,000 to 150,000. If the data reported no more than 100k jobs lost, the market probably would not have moved much. If the data was greater than 100k jobs lost, than there was a higher probability of a sell off. The released data showed unemployment stable at 9.7% and only 36,000 jobs lost instead of the expected 50k to 150k. The data also reported temporary employment and hours worked increased.

The released data could be perceived as a relief for the markets of an economy in transition from recession to recovery is finally beginning to show stronger legs. However the U-6 rate of unemployment did increase from 16.5% to 16.8%.

We now believe the resistance level of 1100 to 1108 (basis March) has now become a strong support level. There is a high probability the market will retest the highs made on 1/15/10 of 1147.25 very soon. As we noted on 3/4/10, our next price goal is 1145 to 1168. Major resistance in the 1220 area.

In the immediate future, the next level of resistance is 1137 to 1143. If this level is broken, the next level of resistance is 1146 to 1150.

The next leg of support for the market would be 1132 to 1128. If the selling persists the next level of support would be 1125 to 1120.

In the recent move, the S&P emini futures (basis March) bottomed at 1040.75 on 2/5/10. On 2/11/10 we received a buy signal and are still holding the buy signal. Since 2/18/10 the market hit a major resistance of 1100 to 1108 and could not close above 1106 until 3/1/10 and reached a high of 1125 on 3/3/10.

The question: Has the previous resistance level now become the new support level? The markets are waiting for today's initial job claims and the Feb Unemployment Rate to be released tomorrow.

If the market does hold this area the next resistance level is 1122 to 1124. The next resistance level after that is 1127 to 1129. Our next goal would be 1145 to 1168. This would test the highs set on 1/19/10. If the market continues on its next leg upward, 1220 should be a very major area or resistance.

Support can be found at 1117 to 1114. If taken out, the next support level would be 1109 to 1104. If 1101 is taken out, the market could see a correction.