Shore Capital Management LLC

By Mark Shore
3/10/2012

What can we say about corn basis May? Not a lot.

The market has been a real "yawner" and caught in trading range since mid December based on a longer term analysis when it bottomed at $5.8550. Since January we've had a long term buy signal, but the market is currently trapped between $6.67 and $5.99.

On a short term analysis we may be near a new buy signal as the market closed at $6.45. It is possible long and short term signals are converging towards a confirmation, however we need to see this market break above $6.70 to confirm a buy signal.

On a short-term basis $6.98 is our first resistance level, if $6.70 is broken. Somewhere between $7.14 and $7.31 would be the second resistance level. Support can be found in the $6.30 to $6.10 range.

On a longer term signal there is resistance at the $7.40 level just above the 2nd resistance level of the short-term analysis. A very strong resistance level is found in the $7.65 to $7.90 level. Currently, if the market closes below $5.99 corn could set up for a short sell-off.

Copyright ©2012 Mark Shore. Contact the author for permission for republication at info@shorecapmgmt.com www.shorecapmgmt.com Mark Shore publishes research, consults on alternative investments and conducts educational workshops. Mark Shore is also an Adjunct Professor at DePaul University's Kellstadt Graduate School of Business in Chicago where he teaches a managed futures/ global macro course.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.  There is risk of loss when investing in futures and options.  Always review a complete CTA disclosure document before investing in any Managed Futures program.  Managed futures can be a volatile and risky investment; only use appropriate risk capital; this investment is not for everyone.  The opinions expressed are solely those of the author and are only for educational purposes. Please talk to your financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

By Mark Shore

The Feb 2012 non-farm payroll increased by 227k. The Private Sector increased by 233k.

The Dec and Jan non-farm payroll jobs were revised upward by 61k new jobs.

U-3 unemployment rate remained stable at 8.3%, however the U-6 rate dropped from 15.1% to 14.9%.

As we noted in last night's article on the preview of the Feb jobs report, the U-6 and job creation numbers are more important to focus on than the U-3 rate.

Over the weekend we will crunch the numbers. Stay tuned for more deets!

Copyright ©2012 Mark Shore. Contact the author for permission for republication at info@shorecapmgmt.com www.shorecapmgmt.com Mark Shore publishes research, consults on alternative investments and conducts educational workshops. Mark Shore is also an Adjunct Professor at DePaul University's Kellstadt Graduate School of Business in Chicago where he teaches a managed futures/ global macro course.

_ By Mark Shore
3/8/2012

On March 9th, 2012 the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the February Unemployment rate at 8:30am EST.  Regardless of the reported seasonally adjusted U-3 Unemployment Rate, the more important focus should be on the number of jobs created in the private sector and the U-6 unemployment rate and some of the other underlying metrics.

The BLS defines the U-3 rate, sometimes called the headline rate of unemployment as workers seeking jobs in the last four weeks. The U-6 rate, sometimes called the underutilization rate includes the U-3 rate plus workers who have taken part-time jobs because they can’t find full-time employment plus workers who are discouraged from seeking jobs. More of this can be found in an article I wrote in 2009 Redefining the unemployment rate.

The January U-3 rate was reported at 8.3%. The rate peaked at 10% in October 2009.  The January U-6 rate was reported at 15.1% after peaking at 17.1% in October 2009.

As reported by Yahoo finance, the consensus for the March report is 8.3% and job creation is estimated between 206k to 250k.

The phrase “unemployment rate is a lagging indicator” usually refers to the fact of job seekers becoming more confident of finding a job after the economy begins to grow and more jobs are available. As this happens the unemployment rate can actually increase because more job seekers are being counted into the U-3 rate as they more actively seek employment.

Therefore focusing on net job creation in the private sector and the U-6 rate are more important than the U-3 rate.

Copyright ©2012 Mark Shore. Contact the author for permission for republication at info@shorecapmgmt.com www.shorecapmgmt.com Mark Shore publishes research, consults on alternative investments and conducts educational workshops. Mark Shore is also an Adjunct Professor at DePaul University's Kellstadt Graduate School of Business in Chicago where he teaches a managed futures/ global macro course.

_The Chicago Council on Global Affairs Presents:
The Economic Outlook and Policy Challenges for the United States and Europe

Have the recent years of political gridlock stalled and complicated the American political system? Simultaneously the European Union, with the world’s largest combined economy, is struggling to determine policy decisions based on sound economic intelligence.

Topics discussed:
-Will Europe continue to move deeper into crisis?
-Will America’s recovery remain slow?
-What are the specific policy challenges that need to be addressed immediately? And
-Can the political leadership in America overcome the politics it faces in order to address long term global economic issues and realize its long-term potential to succeed?

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Bloomberg LP Presents:
Bloomberg Precious Metals Conference

The conference will cover the steady rise in gold and silver prices as Europe's sovereign debt crisis escalates and U.S. economic recovery remains fragile.

Topics Include:
Global Economic Outlook: Impact on Precious Metals
Betting on Precious Metals
Alternative Ways to Invest in Gold
Finding Ways to Use Gold
Mining Companies Outlook
Industrial Demand for Precious Metals

Speakers Include:
Stuart Wallace, Managing Editor, Commodity Markets Bloomberg News
Francisco Blanch, Head of Global Commodity Research, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Research
Christoph Eibl, CEO, Tiberius Group
Martin Murenbeeld, Chief Economist, DundeeWealth
Michael Pento, President, Pento Portfolio Strategies
Michael McKee, Economics Editor, Bloomberg Television

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_On February 24, 2012 IL State Rep Kelly Cassidy (14th District) announced: Employment and Resource Fair in Chicago

Employers will be collecting resumes, providing information on job opportunities within their respective firms and conducting on the spot interviews with qualified job seekers.

Local organizations will assist job seekers to improve their career search and resume writing skills. Resources will also be available to provide residents with health screenings for jobs in the health care sector or that require physical activity.

Attendees are required to bring an updated copy of their resume and dress professionally.

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_The Chicago Midwest Turnaround Management Association Presents:

The Digital Revolution: Restructuring Media and Entertainment Companies in the Internet World

The migration of content to digital mediums has prompted many businesses to rethink their business models. Some businesses restructure their balance sheets and operations to survive, while others turn to Chapter 11.

The group of panelists will provide insights on the past and continuing challenges in the media and entertainment sectors, along with lessons learned executing reorganizations.


The panel will identify future opportunities for investors and restructuring professionals.

Panelists Include:
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_ The National Introducing Brokers Association Presents:

New York NIBA Sales and Marketing Conference 2012

The conference connects IBs and CTAs with their peers to exchange ideas, discuss concerns and trade professional experiences from which other members can learn.

NIBA was established in 1991 as a not-for-profit. As the only official association representing IBs and CTAs, their goal is to ensure open channels of communication among individual members and between IBs, CTAs, FCMs and industry regulators.

Topics Include:
-Forex: Exchange Traded or Cash
-Assessing the Risks of Doing Business with Your FCM
-Televent DTN: Market Update
-CFTC Update
-Semi-Annual Legal Review

Speakers Include:
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_ The Minneapolis Grain Exchange Presents
Wheat Market Outlook and Hedging Strategies

Topics Include:
-       Information about MGEX and the Hard Red Spring Wheat contract
-       An introduction to innovative MGEX financially settled index futures and options
-       Economic conditions and forecast for spring wheat and durum
-       Historical basis and convergence discussion
-       Introduction to hedging strategies, from entry level to complex
-       Current weather and outlook forecasts for Canada and the U.S.

Speakers include:
Joe Victor, Marketing Specialist, MGEX
Brian Hoops, President and Senior Market Analyst, Midwest Market Solutions, Inc.
Darin Newsom, Senior Analyst, DTN Progressive Farmer

For more information and registration email marketing@mgex.com

Date: Tuesday, February 28, 2012
Time: 2pm to 4pm
Venue: Lombard Room, Fairmont, Winnipeg

 There is no charge to attend this seminar.

MGEX, a Designated Contract Market (DCM) and Derivatives Clearing Organization (DCO), was established in 1881 and is the only market for Hard Red Spring Wheat (HRSW), National Corn Index (NCI), National Soybean Index (NSI), Hard Red Winter Wheat Index (HRWI), Hard Red Spring Wheat Index (HRSI) and Soft Red Winter Wheat Index (SRWI) futures and options. To learn more about MGEX visit www.mgex.com.

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For more events click here

_CTAEXPO LLC Presents

CTA Expo New York 2012

CTA EXPO in New York provides CTA’s and professional asset managers the opportunity to network with capital raisers and allocators looking to identify trading talent.

The EXPO offers sessions on how managers can grow their business and how allocators can more effectively manage their portfolios. This is the 8th conference organized by CTAEXPO LLC and the third one in New York.


Topics Include:
-An Insider’s View of Marketing
-How Family Offices Select Managers
-Marketing in Latin America
-Marketing in Asia
-Compliance Issues in Today’s Regulatory Environment

Speakers Include:

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