Foreign Policy magazine (FP) recently released their 2010 Global Cities Index. Of the 65 cities listed, Chicago moved up to 6th place from the previous 8th place.

The index was derived from a partnership of FP, the Chicago Council on Global Affairs and the consulting firm A.T. Kearny.

The cities were chosen based on a population of at least 1 million people. The index tried to answer the ever elusive question: What makes a city global?

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Cocktails On the Sound
9/16/2010 - Connecticut

Hedge Funds Care presents their 2nd Annual Connecticut event, Cocktails on the Sound, hosted by WR Capital.

The mission of the international charity Hedge Funds Care is prevention and treating child abuse.The charity is mostly supported by the hedge fund industry.

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Golden Networking presents their monthly:
High Frequency Trading Happy Hour

Date: Sept 14th

Time: 6pm to 9pm

Price: Free

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On July 7th, 2010 the Institute for Housing Studies (IHS) at DePaul University in Chicago released the "Cook County Rent and Vacancy 2010 Q1 Report". The report noted most submarkets of Chicago and suburban Cook County continue to see high vacancy rates and decreasing rents.

In the first quarter of 2006 Chicago and Cook County vacancy rates were 3.1% and 3.6% respectively. The rates bottomed in Q4 2006 at 2.3% and 2.5% respectively.

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I'm co-producing the Tutor / Mentor Jam on Sunday Aug 29th. We have 5 bands, 1 comic and food is included in the price of the ticket.

For more information and tickets go to http://www.tutormentorjam.org/jam.htm
If you are interested in sponsoring the event, information can be found at:
http://www.tutormentorjam.org/sponsors.htm

This coming-together of bands, entertainers, and the local business community represents a village, coming together to draw public attention and support toward volunteer-based, non-school tutor/mentor programs in high-poverty/high-crime neighborhoods throughout the Chicago region.

Such programs provide safe places where youth can connect with caring adult tutors, mentors, and career coaches who volunteer to help at-risk youth gain the academic and decision making edge that just might be the difference in a few years, when that child is deciding between a book and a gun.

Date: Sunday Aug 29th
Time: doors open at 5pm, show starts at 6pm
Location: The Darkroom, 2210 W Chicago Ave.
Price: $15 online, $20 @ door

Please feel free to spread the word about the event and let journalists and bloggers know.

If you have any questions about the event email mshore@shorecapmgmt.com



 
 
On Friday, August 13th, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the July 2010 Midwest Consumer Price Index.

The national CPI reported the All Items index (not seasonally adjusted) increased by 1.2% from July 2009 and was flat from June 2010. The Midwest CPI (not seasonally adjusted) increased by 1.7% from July 2009 and increased by 0.2% from June 2010.

All Items less food and energy index (Core, a less volatile index) increased by 0.9% from July 2009 and was flat from June 2010. The Midwest Core index Core index increased by 1.0% since July 2009 and was flat from June 2009.

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Our comments from 6/14/10 stated we had received oversold signals in the U.S. equity markets between 6/3/10 and 6/14/10 and the market may be at or near at least a short term bottom. Last week equities rallied right into a very strong resistance level.

E-mini S&P futures (basis Sept) has reached a major resistance range from 1115 to 1132 range. If it breaks this area the next major resistance level would be 1150 to 1163. If the market breaks out of this range, there is a strong possibility the market could test the 1210 to 1215 range.

Initial support can be found in the 1111 to the 1105 range. If the Sept contract breaks this level than the next support level is 1097 to 1090. In the short run we are beginning to receive signals of the market approaching overbought.

The market is reaching a pivotal moment as to whether the market should take the next leg up or could it test the 1090 to 1084 area. Could this be the high of the current trading range?

The E-mini and DJ and NASDAQ markets have reached major resistance areas as well. Within the next few days we should know if the market is moving higher or correcting.



 
 
From our comments on 4/26/10, we began to ask if the equity markets were becoming overbought. The E-mini S&P futures contract (basis Sept) gave signals of the market’s potential sell off. By 5/12/10 (post the “flash crash” of 5/6/10 where our downside targets were hit) the market was beginning to rally back and we received signals of the market at least moving sideways if not higher.

In the past few weeks we have experienced an increased correlation between the decline of equities and the decline of the Euro and ever increasing volatility swings.

From a fundamental standpoint, if EU’s economies stall, they will be buying less US products and services and potentially damaging our recovery. Keep in mind the depreciation of the Euro causes $US priced items to be more expensive (including $ denominated commodities) overseas. This was seen as many commodities prices have fallen in recent weeks. As commodity markets decline, so do commodity-linked currencies such as the Canadian $ and the Australian $.

The depreciation of the Euro has taken on a life of its own as riots in Greece occurred, the fear of contagion spreading to the P.I.I.G.S. countries and possibly to other parts of Europe. 

As we witnessed in 2008, the major tenets of an economy are confidence and liquidity. If one tenet disappears or is reduced the other will also disappear or be reduced causing more uncertainty in the markets. We have been experiencing this in recent weeks due to the confidence crisis in Europe.
 
The Euro zone is a loosely tied group of countries utilizing one currency, but with no major economic infrastructure to intervene in times of economic hardship. Perhaps this is the opportunity for Europe to develop a stronger economic infrastructure.

To understand this lack of infrastructure in American terms, think of a U.S. state needing a bailout, but instead of the topic being debated in Congress, it would be debated in the other  49 state assemblies and then the Governors of each state would meet to determine if they would bailout the other state. This scenario in Europe creates an environment of slower decision making to support Greece. The slower the process moves, the more uncertain markets become and risk aversion increases.

Many economists and traders in recent weeks have called for the demise of the Euro zone. We don’t believe the demise of the Euro will occur as the Europeans need the EU and Euro zone to remain for two major reasons:  1) The Europeans want The EU as another reserve currency beyond the $US. 2)  The EU as a combined economy has stronger weighting in the world than each member country has on its own.

On 6/3/10 we received a signal in the E-mini NASDAQ futures (basis Sept) of the market becoming oversold. On 6/11/10 we received an oversold signal of the E-mini DJ market. As of this writing tonight we received an oversold signal in the E-mini S&P futures contract. With the confirmation of the equity complex being oversold, we believe the market could rally in the short term, barring any surprising negative news.

TheE-mini S&P futures (basis Sept) has initial resistance in the 1092 to 1103 area. If it breaks above this range, the next major resistance level is 1135 to 1158. There is a potential we could see a rally towards the 1210 to 1215 range.  Initial support level is the 1082 to 1074.

The Euro (basis Sept) has initial resistance in the 1.23 area. If the market continues, the next resistance level is the 1.26 to 1.28 range and potentially pushing to 1.31 as the shorts gets squeezed.

 
 
The Mathematics in Finance Workshop and Conference Center at the Courant Institute (NYU) presents:

Recent Developments in Derivatives Pricing: A Special Event Honoring Dilip Madan

Date: June 19-20, 2010
Location: New York University, Courant Institute

This two day workshop covers recent advancements in derivatives pricing, including topics such as:
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The Fred Arditti Center for Risk Management of DePaul University, the Chicago Actuarial Association, the Midwestern Actuarial Forum and PRMIA Chicago will hold a half-day conference:

Searching for Alpha: Managing Risk and Return

The keynote speaker, Frank R. Casey, a financial expert who, together with Harry Markopolos and Neil Chelo, blew the whistle on Bernard Madoff’s Ponzi scheme. Presentations on operational due diligence and reputation risk will follow the keynote speech. A risk officer forum will follow the presentations.

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