What can we say about corn basis May? Not a lot.
The market has been a real "yawner" and caught in trading range since mid December based on a longer term analysis when it bottomed at $5.8550. Since January we've had a long term buy signal, but the market is currently trapped between $6.67 and $5.99.
On a short term analysis we may be near a new buy signal as the market closed at $6.45. It is possible long and short term signals are converging towards a confirmation, however we need to see this market break above $6.70 to confirm a buy signal.
On a short-term basis $6.98 is our first resistance level, if $6.70 is broken. Somewhere between $7.14 and $7.31 would be the second resistance level. Support can be found in the $6.30 to $6.10 range.
On a longer term signal there is resistance at the $7.40 level just above the 2nd resistance level of the short-term analysis. A very strong resistance level is found in the $7.65 to $7.90 level. Currently, if the market closes below $5.99 corn could set up for a short sell-off.
Copyright ©2012 Mark Shore. Contact the author for permission for republication at firstname.lastname@example.org www.shorecapmgmt.com Mark Shore publishes research, consults on alternative investments and conducts educational workshops. Mark Shore is also an Adjunct Professor at DePaul University's Kellstadt Graduate School of Business in Chicago where he teaches a managed futures/ global macro course.
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