Grains

From the USDA planting progress report of 4/27/09, the data showed that many of the markets are lagging behind the 5 year average of planting progress. Weather has also played a part in the market's recent rally. With the heavy rains in recent weeks, its been difficult for farmers to plant. If heavy rains continue after planting has occurred, than there is risk for flooding the fields. This could support higher prices of the grain markets even if the global economy remains negative to flat. The bullish bet on grains is for the planting progress to still be below the averages. The next USDA report will show if this is true or not.

On 4/28/09 we noted that if July corn should break above the $3.95 level we could be witnessing the next upward leg of pricing. On 4/29/09 we received a buy signal for the market.  On 5/1/09 July corn hit a high of $4.1575. There is resistance in the $4.13 to $4.19 area. If this range is broken, we would be testing the $4.30 to $4.35 as the next major resistance level. On the downside the next support level is $4.04 to $3.98.

Soybeans (basis July) received a buy signal on 5/1/09. The next major resistance area is $11.25 to $11.35. On the downside there is support in the $11.02 to $10.97. If the market falls below this range the next major support level is $10.70 to $10.40 range.

On 5/1/09 wheat (basis July) received a new buy signal. The next major resistance level is $5.92 to $6.05. If the market continues to rally, a very strong resistance level is $6.29 to $6.54. On the downside there is support in the $5.50 to $5.30 range.