In our last S&P comments from March 13, 2012, we talked about the S&P e-mini futures basis June had found resistance in the 1370 area and if it should break above it, the next short-term resistance would be 1370 to 1405 range.
On March 13, the market did break above the 1370 area and reached 1408 on March 16 and consolidated to 1380 by March 23. On March 27, the market hit a high of 1419.75 and backed down to 1406 on the close. The market is currently fighting short-term resistance.
On a long-term basis, the market is starting to near our initial long-term target of 1425 to 1440.
On a short-term basis we have been long since March 9. Currently the market would need to break below 1386 for us go neutral. Short-term support is found at 1400 to 1375.
Currently, on a long-term basis the market would need to break below 1347 to go short as our long-term signals went long in October. There is support in the 1360 to 1300 range.
Both long-term and short-term indicators have entered into overbought territory. The market could still move higher, but it could become a bit more volatile as it climbs. It may be headed for a near-term consolidation.
If the market should move higher, our next short-term resistance is 1422 to 1440. Our next long-term resistance is 1470 to 1488.
Stay tuned and you may want to put on your seat belt.
Copyright ©2012 Mark Shore. Contact the author for permission for republication at firstname.lastname@example.org www.shorecapmgmt.com Mark Shore publishes research, consults on alternative investments and conducts educational workshops. Mark Shore is also an Adjunct Professor at DePaul University's Kellstadt Graduate School of Business in Chicago where he teaches a managed futures/ global macro course.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is risk of loss when investing in futures and options. Always review a complete CTA disclosure document before investing in any Managed Futures program. Managed futures and futures trading can be a volatile and risky investment; only use appropriate risk capital; this investment is not for everyone. The opinions expressed are solely those of the author and are only for educational purposes. Please talk to your financial advisor before making any investment decisions.