By Mark Shore
3/27/12

In our last S&P comments from March 13, 2012, we talked about the S&P e-mini futures basis June had found resistance in the 1370 area and if it should break above it, the next short-term resistance would be 1370 to 1405 range.

On March 13, the market did break above the 1370 area and reached 1408 on March 16 and consolidated to 1380 by March 23. On March 27, the market hit a high of 1419.75 and backed down to 1406 on the close. The market is currently fighting short-term resistance.

On a long-term basis, the market is starting to near our initial long-term target of 1425 to 1440.

On a short-term basis we have been long since March 9. Currently the market would need to break below 1386 for us go neutral. Short-term support is found at 1400 to 1375.

Currently, on a long-term basis the market would need to break below 1347 to go short as our long-term signals went long in October. There is support in the 1360 to 1300 range.

Both long-term and short-term indicators have entered into overbought territory. The market could still move higher, but it could become a bit more volatile as it climbs. It may be headed for a near-term consolidation.

If the market should move higher, our next short-term resistance is 1422 to 1440. Our next long-term resistance is 1470 to 1488.

Stay tuned and you may want to put on your seat belt.

Copyright ©2012 Mark Shore. Contact the author for permission for republication at info@shorecapmgmt.com www.shorecapmgmt.com Mark Shore publishes research, consults on alternative investments and conducts educational workshops. Mark Shore is also an Adjunct Professor at DePaul University's Kellstadt Graduate School of Business in Chicago where he teaches a managed futures/ global macro course.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.  There is risk of loss when investing in futures and options.  Always review a complete CTA disclosure document before investing in any Managed Futures program. Managed futures and futures trading can be a volatile and risky investment; only use appropriate risk capital; this investment is not for everyone.  The opinions expressed are solely those of the author and are only for educational purposes. Please talk to your financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

_The Mankoff Company Presents:

After the Bell Trading Forum: Must Know Strategies & Applications for Trading in Asia, Latin America & the Eastern Bloc

The markets today have become increasingly volatile and it brings continuous challenges to the trading community. In this environment, it is critical to keep abreast, if not ahead, of the latest market opportunities.

Topics Include:

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-Identifying the best model and brokers to align with your strategy and incorporate the best strategies for trading flow
-Buy vs. Build: Determining which will expedite your time to revenue

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By Mark Shore
3/12/2012

After 2011's volatile movements in the S&P 500 index, we received a long-term buy signal in mid October basis the June 2012 E-mini S&P 500 contract.

However, the market keeps bumping up against the 1365 to 1370 area and then sells off.

Currently on a long-term basis, the market would need to close below 1321 for a new short signal to occur. There is strong support in the 1337 area.

Our indicators are showing the market entering into an overbought region, but our long-term indicators can remain overbought or oversold for a while before the market finally begins to turn. However, we need to be aware of the area it has entered.

On a long-term basis the market has been holding above our initial targets of 1254 and 1347. If the market continues the rally, the next long-term targets are 1425 to 1440.

On a short-term basis, we received a buy signal on Feb 3th that held until March 5th. On March 9th we received a new short-term buy signal. Currently, if 1334 is taken out, the short-term signal could turn neutral.

The market has held above our initial short-term level of 1339. The next resistance area is 1370 to 1405.

The market is at a turning point of either moving forward or having some consolidation. The next support level of consolidation would be about 1325.


Copyright ©2012 Mark Shore. Contact the author for permission for republication at info@shorecapmgmt.com www.shorecapmgmt.com Mark Shore publishes research, consults on alternative investments and conducts educational workshops. Mark Shore is also an Adjunct Professor at DePaul University's Kellstadt Graduate School of Business in Chicago where he teaches a managed futures/ global macro course.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.  There is risk of loss when investing in futures and options.  Always review a complete CTA disclosure document before investing in any Managed Futures program. Managed futures and futures trading can be a volatile and risky investment; only use appropriate risk capital; this investment is not for everyone.  The opinions expressed are solely those of the author and are only for educational purposes. Please talk to your financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

By Mark Shore
3/10/2012

What can we say about corn basis May? Not a lot.

The market has been a real "yawner" and caught in trading range since mid December based on a longer term analysis when it bottomed at $5.8550. Since January we've had a long term buy signal, but the market is currently trapped between $6.67 and $5.99.

On a short term analysis we may be near a new buy signal as the market closed at $6.45. It is possible long and short term signals are converging towards a confirmation, however we need to see this market break above $6.70 to confirm a buy signal.

On a short-term basis $6.98 is our first resistance level, if $6.70 is broken. Somewhere between $7.14 and $7.31 would be the second resistance level. Support can be found in the $6.30 to $6.10 range.

On a longer term signal there is resistance at the $7.40 level just above the 2nd resistance level of the short-term analysis. A very strong resistance level is found in the $7.65 to $7.90 level. Currently, if the market closes below $5.99 corn could set up for a short sell-off.

Copyright ©2012 Mark Shore. Contact the author for permission for republication at info@shorecapmgmt.com www.shorecapmgmt.com Mark Shore publishes research, consults on alternative investments and conducts educational workshops. Mark Shore is also an Adjunct Professor at DePaul University's Kellstadt Graduate School of Business in Chicago where he teaches a managed futures/ global macro course.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.  There is risk of loss when investing in futures and options.  Always review a complete CTA disclosure document before investing in any Managed Futures program.  Managed futures can be a volatile and risky investment; only use appropriate risk capital; this investment is not for everyone.  The opinions expressed are solely those of the author and are only for educational purposes. Please talk to your financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

By Mark Shore

The Feb 2012 non-farm payroll increased by 227k. The Private Sector increased by 233k.

The Dec and Jan non-farm payroll jobs were revised upward by 61k new jobs.

U-3 unemployment rate remained stable at 8.3%, however the U-6 rate dropped from 15.1% to 14.9%.

As we noted in last night's article on the preview of the Feb jobs report, the U-6 and job creation numbers are more important to focus on than the U-3 rate.

Over the weekend we will crunch the numbers. Stay tuned for more deets!

Copyright ©2012 Mark Shore. Contact the author for permission for republication at info@shorecapmgmt.com www.shorecapmgmt.com Mark Shore publishes research, consults on alternative investments and conducts educational workshops. Mark Shore is also an Adjunct Professor at DePaul University's Kellstadt Graduate School of Business in Chicago where he teaches a managed futures/ global macro course.

_ By Mark Shore
3/8/2012

On March 9th, 2012 the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the February Unemployment rate at 8:30am EST.  Regardless of the reported seasonally adjusted U-3 Unemployment Rate, the more important focus should be on the number of jobs created in the private sector and the U-6 unemployment rate and some of the other underlying metrics.

The BLS defines the U-3 rate, sometimes called the headline rate of unemployment as workers seeking jobs in the last four weeks. The U-6 rate, sometimes called the underutilization rate includes the U-3 rate plus workers who have taken part-time jobs because they can’t find full-time employment plus workers who are discouraged from seeking jobs. More of this can be found in an article I wrote in 2009 Redefining the unemployment rate.

The January U-3 rate was reported at 8.3%. The rate peaked at 10% in October 2009.  The January U-6 rate was reported at 15.1% after peaking at 17.1% in October 2009.

As reported by Yahoo finance, the consensus for the March report is 8.3% and job creation is estimated between 206k to 250k.

The phrase “unemployment rate is a lagging indicator” usually refers to the fact of job seekers becoming more confident of finding a job after the economy begins to grow and more jobs are available. As this happens the unemployment rate can actually increase because more job seekers are being counted into the U-3 rate as they more actively seek employment.

Therefore focusing on net job creation in the private sector and the U-6 rate are more important than the U-3 rate.

Copyright ©2012 Mark Shore. Contact the author for permission for republication at info@shorecapmgmt.com www.shorecapmgmt.com Mark Shore publishes research, consults on alternative investments and conducts educational workshops. Mark Shore is also an Adjunct Professor at DePaul University's Kellstadt Graduate School of Business in Chicago where he teaches a managed futures/ global macro course.

_The Chicago Council on Global Affairs Presents:
The Economic Outlook and Policy Challenges for the United States and Europe

Have the recent years of political gridlock stalled and complicated the American political system? Simultaneously the European Union, with the world’s largest combined economy, is struggling to determine policy decisions based on sound economic intelligence.

Topics discussed:
-Will Europe continue to move deeper into crisis?
-Will America’s recovery remain slow?
-What are the specific policy challenges that need to be addressed immediately? And
-Can the political leadership in America overcome the politics it faces in order to address long term global economic issues and realize its long-term potential to succeed?

Read more

Bloomberg LP Presents:
Bloomberg Precious Metals Conference

The conference will cover the steady rise in gold and silver prices as Europe's sovereign debt crisis escalates and U.S. economic recovery remains fragile.

Topics Include:
Global Economic Outlook: Impact on Precious Metals
Betting on Precious Metals
Alternative Ways to Invest in Gold
Finding Ways to Use Gold
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Francisco Blanch, Head of Global Commodity Research, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Research
Christoph Eibl, CEO, Tiberius Group
Martin Murenbeeld, Chief Economist, DundeeWealth
Michael Pento, President, Pento Portfolio Strategies
Michael McKee, Economics Editor, Bloomberg Television

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