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Correlation of the U.S. Dollar to Commodities

7/17/2016

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Summary
  • Commodities are often quoted in U.S. dollars, making commodities cheaper or more expensive to the rest of the world based on the direction of the dollar.
  • The 12-month and 36-month rolling correlations of $DXY to S&P GSCI note an increasing negative correlation.
  • Longer-term directional moves of the U.S. dollar may imply the general direction of commodities as a sector.
I recently spoke at an ETF conference about commodities. During the panel discussion I mentioned that commodities includes a lesser known 
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Copyright ©2016 Mark Shore. Contact Mark Shore for permission for republication at info@shorecapmgmt.com Mark Shore has more than 25 years of experience in the futures markets and managed futures, publishes research, consults on alternative investments and conducts educational workshops.www.shorecapmgmt.com 

Mark Shore is also an Adjunct Professor at DePaul University’s Kellstadt Graduate School of Business, where he teaches the only known accredited managed futures course in the country. He is also a Board Member of the Arditti Center for Risk Management at DePaul University.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is risk of loss when investing in futures and options. Futures and options can be a volatile and risky investment; only use appropriate risk capital; this investment is not for everyone. The opinions expressed are solely those of the author and are only for educational purposes. Please talk to your financial advisor before making any investment decisions.




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CTA Expo NYC 2016

3/8/2016

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CTA EXPO New York 2016
For the first time the New York event on April 21, 2016 will be a combination of the Emerging Manager Forum and CTA Expo. The Expo / Forum is a one day conference consisting of speakers and panels combined with extensive networking opportunities. Attendees can attend any of the presentations throughout the day or decide to talk and network with other industry professionals.
 
Topics include:
Presentation of the CTAExpo Lifetime Achievement Award
Recipient: Sol Waksman (Barclay Hedge, Ltd)

An Insider’s Look at Platforms…Their Selection and Use for Managers and Investors
The panel will discuss guidelines for making the decision that the use of a platform is the right decision for investors and managers and what criteria should be used when selecting a platform.

The Astrology of Alternatives…What Investors and Managers Should Expect in 2016 and Beyond
A bestselling author and globally recognized expert in alternatives investments will discuss the impact of current events on managers and the impact these events are having on investor decisions.
Bob Swarup, PhD. (Camdor Global)

Marketing Your Strategy & Out Marketing Your Competitors
Bruce Frumerman is an expert in helping financial service firms create brand identities for their organizations and in developing marketing strategies and programs. He will discuss how to differentiate yourself in a crowded investment landscape.

Keynote Speaker
Trading Traps…Too Many to Count
Peter Borish is a prominent alternative industry pioneer, investor and opinion leader. He will discuss roadblocks he has experienced during a successful career and their impact on investment decisions.
Peter Borish (Quad Capital)

Manager Operational Issues in 2016 and Their Impact on the Investment Decision
Research has shown about 80% of the investment decision a client makes is based on factors other than track record. Managers are confronted with new legal and operational issues each year. They must keep abreast of these issues to satisfy clients. The panelist will discuss new challenges that face managers in 2016 as a result of regulatory changes.

Emerging Manager Selection…An Investors Perspective
A look at what three asset allocators consider before they make a decision to invest with an Alternative Manager and what managers need to know before they market to the investment universe represented by each panelist.
​
Emerging Managers and Emerging Manger Investors…Opportunities in Marketing
and Investing in Europe
 
Date: Thursday April 21, 2016
Time: 8am to 4:30pm. Cocktail reception immediately following
Location: The Roosevelt Hotel, 45 E 45th Street, New York, New York,

​For more information and registration click here




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2015 Year in Review Futures Options Report

1/8/2016

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​2015 Year in Review Repor
ts

Unique Research on Futures Options Available Nowhere Else
​on 42 Markets is now available


The Applied Research Company and Shore Capital Research LLC have joined together to create this unique report.
  

Futures Continuation
1M Implied Volatility
1M Historical Volatility
IV-HV Volatility Spread
25-Delta Risk Reversal

​New This Year!
Chart Analysis by
Mark Shore
of Shore Capital Research


For More Information and to Get the Full 55-page Report -
all 42 Markets

Click Here

​
The postings on this site are not recommendations for trades and should not be perceived as such. Losses may occur from trading futures and options. Please talk to your financial advisor before trading futures or options. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. 


​


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New Research Report on Futures Volatility

1/6/2016

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The Applied Research Company and Shore Capital Research LLC have joined together on a futures market research report to be published very soon. Stay tuned for more details.

For questions email info@shorecapmgmt.com

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Chicago CTA Expo 2015

8/25/2015

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CTAExpo LLC Presents:

Chicago CTA Expo 2015

CTA Expo is designed to provide Commodity Trading Advisors and Forex traders the foundation of knowledge they need from both an operational and marketing perspective to raise additional clients, and the opportunity to network with family offices, capital raisers, professional clients and allocators looking to identify trading talent as a source of alpha.

Topics include:

-THE FUTURES INDUSTRY...WHERE WE ARE, WHERE ARE WE GOING

-CRYPTOCURRENCIES...ARE THEY A VIABLE TRADING VEHICLE AND SOURCE OF ALPHA

-THE FAMILY OFFICE MARKET PLACE - STRATEGIES FOR INVESTORS AND MANAGERS

-HITTING IT OUT OF THE PARK...HOW TO CONNECT WITH YOUR FIRST PITCH

-KEYNOTE PANEL - WAR STORIES FROM THE TRENCHES

-INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS AND WHAT THEY LOOK FOR IN A MANAGER

-PLATFORMS..THEIR SELECTION AND USE FOR MANAGERS AND INVESTORS

-MANAGER OPERATIONAL STRUCTURING AND COMPLIANCE AND THEIR IMPORTANCE IN THE ALLOCATION DECISION

 
Speakers Include:

Bryan Johnson (JOHNSON & CO.)

Frank Pusateri  (CTA Expo LLC)

Bucky Isaacson (CTA Expo LLC)

Gerry Corcoran, CHAIRMAN AND CEO (R.J. O’BRIEN) CHAIRMAN (FUTURES INDUSTRY ASSOCIATION)

Alan Snyder, PRESIDENT (SHINNECOCK CAPITAL)

Todd Horsager (COMPASS STRATEGIC INVESTMENTS)

Lauralouise Duffy, CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER (GLOBAL FUND EXCHANGE GROUP LLC.)
Anthony Birbilis, MANAGING DIRECTOR (COHESION PARTNERS INC.)
Lancelot Frick, PRESIDENT (FRICK CAPITAL),
Tim Pickering, PRESIDENT (AUSPICE CAPITAL ADVISORS, LLC.)

Joan Esposito, FOUNDER (J2 STRATEGIC COMMUNICATIONS.)

Ginger Szala, PRINCIPAL (GINGER SZALA INC)

Emil van Essen, CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER (VAN ESSEN AND ASSOCIATES)
Ted Kingsbery, PRESIDENT (LIBERTY HERITAGE GROUP, LLC.)
Frank Franiak, PRESIDENT (WOODFIELD FUND ADMINISTRATION, LLC.)
MARTY EHRLICH, FOUNDER (SUNRISE CAPITAL PARTNERS, LLC.)

Michael Dubin, MANAGING DIRECTOR (SILVERCREST ASSET MANAGEMENT GROUP, LLC.)

Mark de Souza, CIO (COHESION PARTNERS, INC.)

Dr. Bob Swarup, PRESIDENT (CAMDOR GLOBAL)

David Young, PRESIDENT (GEMINI ALTERNATIVE FUNDS, LLC.)

Mark E. Ruddy, Esq., PRINCIPAL PRINCIPAL (RUDDY LAW OFFICES, PLLC)

John Euler, FOUNDER (EAM COMPLIANCE ADVISORS)
Kate Dressel, PRESIDENT (STRATEGIC COMPLIANCE SOLUTIONS, LLC.)

Date: Thursday, September 17, 2015

Venue: UBS Center, One North Wacker Drive, Chicago, IL

For more information and registration click here





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Greece is the Word (Again), But is it a Greek Tragedy? 

8/24/2015

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By Mark Shore

Summary
  • The focus should not be on Greece, but on the eurozone's ability to solve problems.
  • The eurozone has reached a fork in the road for more robust infrastructure for long-term success or risk increased uncertainty of the eurozone.
  • If Greece or any nation leaves the eurozone a precedent is set for other member states to do the same, thus increasing the uncertainty of the euro.

Life is filled with uncertainty. Market decisions are frequently made in moments of uncertainty. Europe has experienced its share of uncertainty and volatility in the past decade. This leads to the current situation of Greece that has grabbed a lot of the recent discussions and headlines.   READ MORE


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2015 Shanghai China Forex Expo

2/1/2015

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The 2015 China (Shanghai) Forex Expo,  a three-day event for brokers, traders, investors, affiliates and IBs from across China as well around the world. 

With all kinds of activities including a forex award presentation and B2B networking, brokers and financial technology providers will not only have the opportunity to communicate with each other, but also will have the chance to meet with people from the forex and binary option industry.

With a growing affluent and upper middle class in China, this event will provide the know-how about what’s moving the markets via a range of free seminars and an exhibition of forex products and services. 

It is a money show and traders expo. Forex conference will be held paralleled with the exhibition. Visitors will benefit from this well organized finance event. Shanghai is the first priority city for many brokers who first start their business in China. More than 40 forex and binary option exhibitors and tens of forex media will join the expo. 

Over 20,000 attendees are expected at the three-day event. 

Date: September 11-13, 2015. 
Venue: Shanghai Mart, Shanghai, China

For more information and to register for the expo click here

To book a booth please contact:
Tel: +86-21-3126 1015
E-Mail: info@chinaforexexpo.com
Skype:chinaforexexpo


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NYC Forex Industry Conference 2013 (FXIC)

2/10/2013

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Shift Forex Presents:
Forex Industry Conference (FXIC) 2013

More companies have entered the FX space in the last 12 months than at any time in history. Collaboration is everywhere, and innovation is at its fastest pace ever.

FXIC taps into the heart of the FX community, assembling buy- and sell-side participants, brokers and technology providers, media and compliance for networking and thought exchange.

Speakers, panellists, topics, and sponsors are carefully selected to maximize value for each attendee. The event will bring together traditional and FX buy-side funds, retail and institutional FX brokerages, banks and non-bank liquidity providers, regulators and industry associations, marketing and technology providers, and non-FX brokerage firms exploring or growing an FX offering.

Topics Include: Read More

Copyright ©2013 Mark Shore. Contact the author for permission for republication at info@shorecapmgmt.com Mark Shore has more than 20 years of experience in the futures markets and managed futures, publishes research, consults on alternative investments and conducts educational workshops. www.shorecapmgmt.com

Mark Shore is also an Adjunct Professor at DePaul University's Kellstadt Graduate School of Business in Chicago where he teaches a managed futures / global macro course and an Adjunct at the New York Institute of Finance. Mark is a contributing writer to Reuters HedgeWorld.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.  There is risk of loss when investing in futures and options.  Always review a complete CTA disclosure document before investing in any Managed Futures program.  Managed futures can be a volatile and risky investment; only use appropriate risk capital; this investment is not for everyone.  The opinions expressed are solely those of the author and are only for educational purposes. Please talk to your financial advisor before making any investment decisions.



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Currencies in Your Future Portfolio?

8/15/2012

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By Mark Shore
Published in Q2 2012 of Micro-Cap Review
Originally written May, 2012
mshore@shorecapmgmt.com

Since the economic decline in 2008, there has been a growing demand of individual and institutional investors to consider various choices of non-correlated investments to reduce tail risk (downside deviation)i and correlation risk, often known as alternative investments.

There is a good chance an investor will have stocks and bonds in their portfolio via a 401k, IRA, pension fund or directly into mutual funds. Perhaps they have some real estate either as an investment or the home they live in and maybe some private equity.

In 2008 and 2009, most stocks both domestically and foreign became highly correlated as they headed south and everyone was seeking the exit door simultaneously, thus causing losses to extend as panic selling and the need to liquidate increased.

One of the increasing areas of non-correlation investment is the currency market or sometimes called forex or FX (foreign exchange). In August, 1971 President Nixon removed the U.S. dollar from the gold standard, ending the Bretton Woods agreement and causing currencies to float at market rates. In December 1971, Professor Milton Friedman wrote “The Need for Futures Markets in Currencies”.(ii) May, 1972, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange introduced currency futures.(iii)

Read More

Copyright ©2012 Mark Shore. Contact the author for permission for republication at mshore@shorecapmgmt.com Mark Shore publishes research, consults on alternative investments and conducts educational workshops. www.shorecapmgmt.com Mark Shore is also an Adjunct Professor at DePaul University's Kellstadt Graduate School of Business in Chicago where he teaches a managed futures/ global macro course.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is risk of loss when investing in futures and options. Always review a complete CTA disclosure document before investing in any Managed Futures program. Managed futures can be a volatile and risky investment; only use appropriate risk capital; this investment is not for everyone. The opinions expressed are solely those of the author and are only for educational purposes. Please talk to your financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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Have the Euro and Equity Markets Bottomed?

6/14/2010

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From our comments on 4/26/10, we began to ask if the equity markets were becoming overbought. The E-mini S&P futures contract (basis Sept) gave signals of the market’s potential sell off. By 5/12/10 (post the “flash crash” of 5/6/10 where our downside targets were hit) the market was beginning to rally back and we received signals of the market at least moving sideways if not higher.

In the past few weeks we have experienced an increased correlation between the decline of equities and the decline of the Euro and ever increasing volatility swings.

From a fundamental standpoint, if EU’s economies stall, they will be buying less US products and services and potentially damaging our recovery. Keep in mind the depreciation of the Euro causes $US priced items to be more expensive (including $ denominated commodities) overseas. This was seen as many commodities prices have fallen in recent weeks. As commodity markets decline, so do commodity-linked currencies such as the Canadian $ and the Australian $.

The depreciation of the Euro has taken on a life of its own as riots in Greece occurred, the fear of contagion spreading to the P.I.I.G.S. countries and possibly to other parts of Europe. 

As we witnessed in 2008, the major tenets of an economy are confidence and liquidity. If one tenet disappears or is reduced the other will also disappear or be reduced causing more uncertainty in the markets. We have been experiencing this in recent weeks due to the confidence crisis in Europe.
 
The Euro zone is a loosely tied group of countries utilizing one currency, but with no major economic infrastructure to intervene in times of economic hardship. Perhaps this is the opportunity for Europe to develop a stronger economic infrastructure.

To understand this lack of infrastructure in American terms, think of a U.S. state needing a bailout, but instead of the topic being debated in Congress, it would be debated in the other  49 state assemblies and then the Governors of each state would meet to determine if they would bailout the other state. This scenario in Europe creates an environment of slower decision making to support Greece. The slower the process moves, the more uncertain markets become and risk aversion increases.

Many economists and traders in recent weeks have called for the demise of the Euro zone. We don’t believe the demise of the Euro will occur as the Europeans need the EU and Euro zone to remain for two major reasons:  1) The Europeans want The EU as another reserve currency beyond the $US. 2)  The EU as a combined economy has stronger weighting in the world than each member country has on its own.

On 6/3/10 we received a signal in the E-mini NASDAQ futures (basis Sept) of the market becoming oversold. On 6/11/10 we received an oversold signal of the E-mini DJ market. As of this writing tonight we received an oversold signal in the E-mini S&P futures contract. With the confirmation of the equity complex being oversold, we believe the market could rally in the short term, barring any surprising negative news.

TheE-mini S&P futures (basis Sept) has initial resistance in the 1092 to 1103 area. If it breaks above this range, the next major resistance level is 1135 to 1158. There is a potential we could see a rally towards the 1210 to 1215 range.  Initial support level is the 1082 to 1074.

The Euro (basis Sept) has initial resistance in the 1.23 area. If the market continues, the next resistance level is the 1.26 to 1.28 range and potentially pushing to 1.31 as the shorts gets squeezed.

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    The postings on this site are not recommendations for trades and should not be perceived as such. Losses may occur from trading futures and options. Please talk to your financial advisor before trading futures or options. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

    Proposals for consulting projects may be sent to mshore@shorecapmgmt.com

    Follow @shorecap

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