Soybean futures have been all over the place, if you blink you may miss the move of one direction. The market's latest move, (basis Nov) topped out at $10.66 on 8/13/09. On 8/14/09 we received a longer term sell signal. By 8/18/09 the market reached $9.42. In our last soybean comments we noted soybeans would find major support between $9.65 to $9.50.

The market closed on 8/21/09 at $9.7625. Soybeans appears to be basing for the next leg up to test the recent highs, but it has also entered into major resistance level and could be a struggle for the market to close above $10.

There is very strong resistance in the $9.82 to $9.97 range. If this is broken, the next major resistance level is $10.08 to $10.16, but could possibly push to $10.25 to $10.30.

The next level of support is $9.71 to $9.50.  If it breaks below this level there is major support in the $9.44 to $9.36 and could possibly make a quick push to $9.29. However, the fundamentals are still bullish to probably maintain the recent lows.

The C$ (basis Sept) has been rallying since March, about the same time equities and commodities began their respective rallies. The C$, as a commodity based currency will usually move in the direction of commodities.

On 7/14/09 we received a long term buy signal when the market was at 8700. On 8/6/09 we received a longer term sell signal when the market was at 9300. On 8/17/09 the market reached major support at 89.87 and then immediately rallied for the next several days. On 8/19/09 we received a short term buy signal and then on 8/20/09, we received a longer term buy signal.

The next resistance level is 92.50 to 92.79. If this level is taken out the next major resistance level is 93.30 to 94.50.

Support levels are found at 92.26 to 91.90. If the market falls below this level the next major support level is 91.50 to 90.7.

In our previous comments there was mounting evidence of the the S&P (basis Sept) to consolidate, but with an upward bias. The market did consolidate for a short period of time after rallying for a month. We had a second support level of 985 to 971. The market fell to this support range and bottomed at 975.50 on 8/17/09 before it made new highs of 1027 on 8/21/09. On 8/19/09 we received a short term buy signal. On 8/21/09 we received both a short and long term buy signal.

We still believe this market to have an upward bias, but could trade with a lot of back and fill action in the near future.

Basis the September contract, the next resistance level is 1030 to 1032. If the market should continue higher the next major resistance level would be 1040 to 1050. There is major resistance at 1090.

The next support level is 1020 to 1019. If this level is broken, there is major support at 1011 to 1000.

During the first half of July, the Nov soybean futures contract was in a bottoming phase as it was testing the lows of $8.81 to $8.82 range. On 7/30/09 the market broke to the upside in a very quick way. By 8/6/09 the market reached a high of $10.4975. Since that time, Nov beans have moved into a very volatile trading range. However the market made a new high of the move on 8/13/09 at $10.66 and then immediately sold off the rest of the day and into the next day when it closed near the lows of $9.7875

Of the grain markets, soybeans have the best fundamentals to support their pricing, but they ran up almost $2 in a matter of a couple of weeks, and are well deserving of some consolidation. This story sounds hauntingly similar to equities. Even the timing of when the markets based and consolidated are very similar.

Nov beans have fallen into a very strong support level and could begin basing from this area. On 8/14/09 we received a long term sell signal after maintaining a long term buy signal since 7/20/09. On 8/13/09 we received a short term sell signal, that could potentially end within the first part of the week. Some of the pressure may have been due to the Aug beans expiring with more deliveries known than had recently been determined.

If the market should consolidate in the current area, $9.97 to $10.03 would be the first level of resistance. If the market pushes farther, $10.19 to $10.30 would be a major resistance level.

There is strong evidence the market will at least find short term support in the $9.65 to $9.50 area.

Since 8/3/09 the S&P market has moved from an incredibly powered upward momentum market to a back and filling market with still an upward bias. On 8/7/09 (basis the Sept contract) the market made a new high of 1016.00 since bottoming last March. Since the last bottoming phase in July, the market has blown beyond most of our target and resistance areas. A few weeks ago we determined a very strong resistance level at 1017. Once the market reached 1016, it has backed off and twice tried to test this high. We noticed an interesting moment this past week on 8/13/09, as the emini DJ (Sept contract) made new highs, but was not confirmed as the S&P did not make new highs.

On 8/13/09 and 8/14/09 the market reached 1015.25 and 1015.75 respectively, but couldn't take out 1016. As the summer rolls on with lower volume and most of the earnings now reported, we believe the market may maintain a consolidation phase for the next couple of weeks, but still holding an upward bias.

In proving the tightness of the range with an upward bias, the market finally reached a longer term sell signal on 8/12/09 after maintaining a longer term buy signal since 7/15/09. On 8/14/09 we received a longer term buy signal. However we still have shorter term sell signals in place, but that could change any day.

If the market takes out the high our next major resistance level is 1030 to 1045. After that 1060 to 1075 would be the next major resistance level. If the economy continues to prove it is stabilizing along with other economies beginning to show they are improving growth as we saw this past week, we could see the S&P futures at 1160 to 1170 by year's end. Right now the very upper end of our targets is around 1250, but don't bet your broker's bonus check for that one to appear quickly.

If the market continues to move sideways and there is mounting evidence of this to occur, the next support level is around 992. If that level is broken we could see the market testing the 985 to 971 range. Ultimately the 930 to 940 area would probably create a bottoming phase.

On 7/8/09 the emini S&P futures (basis Sept) bottomed at 865.25. On 7/15/09 we received a longer term buy signal. The market then very quickly rallied to 994.00 on 7/30/09 on better than expected earnings reports and economic indicators showing more potential for a stabilizing economy.

However since 7/27/09 the market has been trading sideways. Each time it tries to move higher it tends to come off its highs or come off of its lows, even though the market has been up most of the trading days since 7/27/09.

Currently we do see the market caught within a resistance area of 966 to 1000. If the market can break above 1000, the next trading range could be 1016 to 1092 and ultimately 1192.

With that said, the S&P has just experienced a dynamic move in a very short period of time. There is some potential for the market to consolidate before moving higher especially when so many are looking for it to hit 1000.

There is support in the 979 to 975 area. If the market should fall below this range the next support level would be 971 to 966. Since 7/15/09 the market has not seen any consolidation. Any hard sell off could see the market find major support in the 957 to 948 area.

Similar to corn, we believed soybeans (basis Nov) were basing to go higher. Fundamentally soybeans have a stronger story for support than corn, due to tightening supplies, a potential slowdown in soybean growth in Midwestern states, and now increased exporting.

Weather and exports are the two major components that can move grain prices. Buried in the exporting concept is the question of what happens to the dollar as many commodities are priced in dollars.

The ideal weather conditions have been pressuring pricing downward since 6/11/09 when Nov soybeans topped at $10.9950. But increased exporting potential partially caused by the down trending dollar and demand have been supporting the market in recent weeks.

On 7/20/09 we received a longer term buy signal for Nov soybeans. Although the market remained in a trading range during this time, it was finding an upward bias. We needed to see the market hold above $9.33 to prove more bullish. On 7/30/09 the market rallied from the previous day's close of $9.1675 to a high of $9.8450.

We believe this recent market rally has legs for support. The market is currently in a major resistance area of $9.77 to $9.91. If it should break above this range, the next resistance level would be $10.21 to $10.49 and possibly testing the June highs. Ultimately the market could reach $11.30 to $12.

The first level of support for Nov soybeans is $9.64 to $9.61. $9.54 would be a major support level.

For several weeks we have been perceiving the grain markets oversold and at least basing if not moving higher. Last week the USDA released their latest export report and was exceptionally friendly to the market. In our comments dated 7/26/09 we were looking for the market to bottom around $3.08. The market did reach $3.1475 and closed on 7/31/09 at $3.4950. On 7/30/09 we did receive a longer term signal to go long December corn.

The $3.45 area is already a resistance level as we noted on 7/26/09. If the market holds this level, the next area of major resistance is $3.59 to $3.66. Beyond that is major resistance at $3.74 to $3.89.

On the downside, support can be seen at $3.44 to $3.40. A major level of support is $3.35 to $3.32.

If exports continue strong and crop production falls below expectations, we could see corn above $4 in the near future.