Shore Capital ​Research LLC
  • Home
  • Us
    • Us
    • Mark Shore Background
    • Contact Us
    • Community
  • Research
    • Research
    • Mkt Notes
    • VSTOXX Articles
    • VIX Articles
    • Most Read Articles
    • Skewing Your Diversification (The Show)
    • Data Center
  • In The Press
  • Links/Books
  • Events
  • Properties
    • Parking Spaces for Sale or Rent
    • Condos for Sale or Rent

Utilizing the Commodity Channel Index on VIX Futures

3/29/2013

0 Comments

 
Picture
By Mark Shore

In the continuing series of discussing methods of trading the CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX®) futures contract traded on CBOE Futures Exchange, LLC (CFE®), this article will discuss utilizing the Commodity Channel Index (CCI).

In each article, readers are reminded that the liquidity of a trading instrument is always very important. On March 1, 2013, CFE again reported a continuing trend of increased volume in the VIX futures contract. Specifically, February 2013 was the second consecutive month that achieved record average daily volume, total volume and single-day volume for the VIX futures contract and for CFE.i

The average daily volume (ADV) for the VIX futures contract reached a record 161,176 contracts traded. This was an increase of 141% from February 2012 and an increase of 17% from January of 2013. February 25 and 26, 2013 experienced record volume days of 302,278 and 299,566 contracts traded respectively. This was also the first time that the VIX futures daily volume exceeded 300,000 contracts. The previously single-day record volume of 221,323 contracts was set on January 2, 2013. In February 2013, 3,062,344 VIX futures contracts were traded, representing an increase of 129% from February 2012. February 2013 trading represented a 6% increase from the record of 2,897,739 traded contracts set in January 2013. February 2013 was the sixth consecutive month in which trading exceeding two million VIX futures contracts and it was the first month in which trading exceeded 3 million VIX futures contracts.

The CCI was developed by Donald Lambert and introduced in the October 1980 issue of Commodities magazine (aka Futures magazine). Application of the CCI is not limited to physical commodities and may apply to financial instruments as well. The CCI is a metric of an investment's variance from its statistical mean. The CCI reports high values when a market reaches an extended high price relative to its average price. It will report low values when a market reaches an extended low price relative to its average price. In basic terms, the CCI is an overbought/ oversold indicator.ii

The CCI is based on the premise that all markets have cycles from low to low or high to high. The CCI is calculated by calculating a typical price of the day from the high + low + close and then creating a simple moving average of the typical price. The final equation of the CCI = (typical price – moving average)/ (0.015* mean deviation). Lambert applies a constant of 0.015 to keep 70% to 80% of the CCI value between +100 and -100.iii

The CCI is considered overbought when the value exceeds +100 and is considered oversold when the value is below -100. However the CCI may extend beyond +100 and -100 and the market could remain overbought/ oversold for an extended period of time. If a market continues to remain overbought/ oversold, but the CCI is reversing (divergence appears) it may imply the market is nearing a correction. Some examples of divergence are provided in this article.

Parameters of the CCI are based on cyclical periods of the market. For this article we assumed a 60 day cycle, using a 20 day (1/3 of the cycle) CCI parameter setting. The lower the parameter setting, the greater the probability of the CCI to reach overbought/ oversold values.

Chart 1: Nearest Monthly VIX Futures Chart, 20 Month CCI

Picture
READ MORE

i"Trading Volume in VIX Futures reaches New All-Time High for Second Consecutive Month", March 1, 2013, CFE Press Release

iiAchelis, S. (2001). Technical Analysis from A to Z. New York, McGraw-Hill, 103:106

iiiwww.barchart.com



Copyright ©2013 Mark Shore. Contact the author for permission for republication at [email protected] Mark Shore has more than 20 years of experience in the futures markets and managed futures, publishes research, consults on alternative investments and conducts educational workshops. www.shorecapmgmt.com

Mark Shore is also an Adjunct Professor at DePaul University's Kellstadt Graduate School of Business in Chicago where he teaches a managed futures / global macro course and an Adjunct at the New York Institute of Finance. Mark is a contributing writer to Reuters HedgeWorld.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.  There is risk of loss when investing in futures and options.  Always review a complete CTA disclosure document before investing in any Managed Futures program.  Managed futures can be a volatile and risky investment; only use appropriate risk capital; this investment is not for everyone.  The opinions expressed are solely those of the author and are only for educational purposes. Please talk to your financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
0 Comments

Introduction of the Commodity Markets

3/16/2013

0 Comments

 
Picture
By Mark Shore
3/1/2013

As the introductory Commodity Corner column I found this to be a good opportunity to introduce commodities and futures.

One could argue commodities have been around since the beginning of civilization. People have produced, paid or bartered for commodities to use for either production or to consume. Some of the uses of commodities include food, energy, construction, manufacturing, and clothing.

According to the Merriam-Webster dictionary, commodities are defined as: 1) an economic good. 2) A product of mining or agriculture. 3) An article of commerce especially when delivered for shipment. 4) A mass produced un-specialized product. [i]

In today’s global markets both large and small firms will trade and hedge commodities as part of their daily business as either a producer or end-user of the commodity. For example a chocolate candy producing firm will need to purchase cocoa, sugar and of course energy to fuel their factories. If they do business in foreign countries they may need to buy and sell foreign currencies for hedging or delivery purposes. (See “Currencies in Your Future Portfolio?” of the Spring/Summer 2012 issue).

To manage their price risk, a commodity producer, such as a farmer may sell a futures contract to lock-in their selling price. An end-user, such as a coffee chain may buy a futures contract to lock-in their purchasing price. Keep in mind commodity markets tend to be mean-reverting markets as they spike or decline from an average price and then revert back towards that average price overtime. This is often due to shocks in the system such as increased demand, reduction of supply, weather concerns, disruption of distribution channels or possibly political or regional events. If a commodity becomes too expensive, the market participants’ behavioral mechanism will appear as they seek less expensive substitutes. This is known in economics as the substitution effect and one of the differences to note between commodity and equity trading.

Commodities are traded in two common locations: either the spot/cash market usually reserved for industry or sometimes known as “commercials” such as producers, distributors and end-users as the actual physical commodity is traded. Or the products trade on an exchange such as one of the futures exchanges found around the world.  The futures exchanges are often utilized by both commercials and speculators. An exchange offers commercials the opportunity for immediate offset of their commodity risk by speculators offering liquidity to take on the risk. If a commercial has a loss from hedging, it often means they profited in the underlying cash market, because they are holding the opposite direction in the cash market. One can think of the loss on the hedge as a premium on an insurance policy.

Read More

[i] Shore, M. (2011) DePaul University 798 Managed Futures Lecture notes

Copyright ©2012 Mark Shore. Contact the author for permission for republication at [email protected] Mark Shore has more than 20 years of experience in the futures markets and managed futures, publishes research, consults on alternative investments and conducts educational workshops. www.shorecapmgmt.com

Mark Shore is also an Adjunct Professor at DePaul University's Kellstadt Graduate School of Business in Chicago where he teaches a managed futures / global macro course and an Adjunct at the New York Institute of Finance. Mark is a contributing writer to Reuters HedgeWorld.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.  There is risk of loss when investing in futures and options.  Always review a complete CTA disclosure document before investing in any Managed Futures program.  Managed futures can be a volatile and risky investment; only use appropriate risk capital; this investment is not for everyone.  The opinions expressed are solely those of the author and are only for educational purposes. Please talk to your financial advisor before making any investment decisions.


0 Comments

    The postings on this site are not recommendations for trades and should not be perceived as such. Losses may occur from trading futures and options. Please talk to your financial advisor before trading futures or options. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

    Proposals for consulting projects may be sent to [email protected]

    Follow @shorecap

    Archives

    January 2018
    September 2017
    August 2017
    July 2017
    June 2017
    May 2017
    March 2017
    January 2017
    December 2016
    November 2016
    October 2016
    August 2016
    July 2016
    June 2016
    May 2016
    March 2016
    January 2016
    October 2015
    September 2015
    August 2015
    July 2015
    June 2015
    April 2015
    March 2015
    February 2015
    January 2015
    December 2014
    October 2014
    September 2014
    August 2014
    July 2014
    June 2014
    May 2014
    April 2014
    March 2014
    February 2014
    January 2014
    December 2013
    November 2013
    October 2013
    September 2013
    August 2013
    July 2013
    June 2013
    May 2013
    March 2013
    February 2013
    January 2013
    December 2012
    November 2012
    October 2012
    September 2012
    August 2012
    July 2012
    June 2012
    April 2012
    March 2012
    February 2012
    January 2012
    December 2011
    November 2011
    September 2011
    August 2011
    July 2011
    April 2011
    March 2011
    February 2011
    January 2011
    December 2010
    October 2010
    September 2010
    August 2010
    June 2010
    May 2010
    April 2010
    March 2010
    February 2010
    January 2010
    December 2009
    September 2009
    August 2009
    July 2009
    June 2009
    May 2009
    April 2009
    March 2009

    Categories

    All
    All
    Asset Allocation
    BTFD.TV
    Commodities
    Community
    Cyber Security
    Due Diligence
    Economic Stats
    Education
    Energy
    Equity
    Events
    Exchange News
    Fintech
    Forex
    Grains
    Hedge Funds
    Managed Futures
    Market Comments
    Metals
    Most Read Articles
    Options
    Other
    P2P Lending
    Portfolio Management
    Press
    Regulation
    Restoring Customer Confidence
    Risk Management
    Skewing Your Diversification (the Show)
    Trading Strategies
    Video
    Vix
    Vstoxx


    RSS Feed

Powered by Create your own unique website with customizable templates.
Photos from dolbinator1000, *PaysImaginaire*, igotphotos, Michele Dorsey Walfred, MojoBaer, Barney A Bishop, renaissancechambara, ShardsOfBlue, Will Merydith, seanmcmenemy, sadatshami, everydayphotos41, Lars Plougmann, ota_photos, Tony Webster, Images_of_Money, ota_photos, bobchin1941, InvestmentTotal.com, christine zenino, reynermedia, charliekwalker, troyjmorris, Michael_Prepelica, theglobalpanorama, Zak Greant, epSos.de, mikebaird, Will Merydith, net_efekt, Gamma Man, Mike Licht, NotionsCapital.com, Lars Plougmann, sully213, WalkingGeek, bgilliard, LendingMemo, orijinal, Visual Content, pfala, Monika Thorpe, CallMeWhatEver, Philip Taylor PT, Rising Damp, Jeff Kubina, Cyron, kees torn, kenteegardin, jeffedoe, One Way Stock, tea610, epSos.de, alexdecarvalho, Frederick Wildman and Sons, Ltd, Nonprofit empowering young women immigrants in NYC, Don Hankins, joiseyshowaa, woodleywonderworks, Skrewtape, firmatography, Christoph Scholz, Charles Haynes, AndreasPoike, Citizen 4474, epicharmus, PinkPersimon, ota_photos, michaeltk, 401(K) 2013, riptheskull, M. Dolly, Davide "Dodo" Oliva, Peter Ciro Photography, Rob Hurson, KimCarpenter NJ, Matt From London, Aardwolf6886, wuestenigel, investmentzen, Walter Rodriguez