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The U.S. Unemployment Rate: Is the Bottom Near?

5/20/2017

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Summary
The unemployment rate is a mean reverting indicator offering moments of oversold and overbought conditions.

The variance between the maximum and minimum rates of a given year, may indicate the stability of the unemployment rate.

Understanding the tendencies of the U-3 rate, may offer some clues toward future direction of the labor market.
​
In recent months, a growing debate has appeared asking if the U.S. unemployment rate (U-3, the official unemployment rate) is indicating the economy has reached or nearing full employment.

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Copyright ©2017. Contact Mark Shore for permission for republication at info@shorecapmgmt.com Mark Shore has more than 25 years of experience in the futures markets and managed futures, publishes research, consults on alternative investments and conducts educational workshops. www.shorecapmgmt.com 
​

Mark Shore is also an Adjunct Professor at DePaul University’s Kellstadt Graduate School of Business, where he teaches the only known accredited managed futures course in the country. He is also a Board Member of the Arditti Center for Risk Management at DePaul University.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The opinions expressed are only for educational purposes. Please talk to your financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

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VSTOXX / VIX Spread May Imply An Equity Correction

8/11/2016

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Summary
  • The VSTOXX / VIX spread tends to widen when the volatility indexes rally and equity markets decline.
  • The longer the volatility indexes sit at their lows and the spread sits near its average (low), the greater the probability for the equity markets to experience a correction.
  • Currently the VSTOXX / VIX spread is narrowing from an overbought range.
As I'm sure many of you are familiar with the VIX ($VIX) volatility index that measures the market's perspective of implied volatility 30 days into the future. The index is found at the CBOE. It is also known as the "fear index" as it tends to rally when the S&P 500 declines (downside volatility).
​
There is another lesser known, but growing volatility index called VSTOXX found at the Eurex Exchange.  READ MORE

​Follow Mark Shore on Twitter, Facebook and Linkedin

Copyright ©2016 Mark Shore. Contact Mark Shore for permission for republication at info@shorecapmgmt.com Mark Shore has more than 25 years of experience in the futures markets and managed futures, publishes research, consults on alternative investments and conducts educational workshops.www.shorecapmgmt.com 

Mark Shore is also an Adjunct Professor at DePaul University’s Kellstadt Graduate School of Business, where he teaches the only known accredited managed futures course in the country. He is also a Board Member of the Arditti Center for Risk Management at DePaul University.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is risk of loss when investing in futures and options. Futures and options can be a volatile and risky investment; only use appropriate risk capital; this investment is not for everyone. The opinions expressed are solely those of the author and are only for educational purposes. Please talk to your financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

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Greece is the Word (Again), But is it a Greek Tragedy? 

8/24/2015

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By Mark Shore

Summary
  • The focus should not be on Greece, but on the eurozone's ability to solve problems.
  • The eurozone has reached a fork in the road for more robust infrastructure for long-term success or risk increased uncertainty of the eurozone.
  • If Greece or any nation leaves the eurozone a precedent is set for other member states to do the same, thus increasing the uncertainty of the euro.

Life is filled with uncertainty. Market decisions are frequently made in moments of uncertainty. Europe has experienced its share of uncertainty and volatility in the past decade. This leads to the current situation of Greece that has grabbed a lot of the recent discussions and headlines.   READ MORE


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October 2012 Unemployment Report Forecast

11/2/2012

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By Mark Shore

Today at 7:30am (Central time) the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the October 2012 Non-Farm Payrolls report.

According to Yahoo Finance, the market is forecasting a U-3 unemployment rate to increase to 7.9% from September's 7.8% rate and 125k net new jobs. September reported 114k.

September Private Payrolls expected to increase by 130k. September increased by 104k.

Average workweek hours forecasted to remain stable at 34.5 hours per week.
Market expects average hourly earnings to increase by 0.2%. September reported 0.3%

It is more important to focus on jobs created than the U-3 rate. Also jobs created after discounting for government jobs. What happens to the U-6 rate?

September factory orders are to be released at 9am (Central time) today with a forecast of 4.5%. August reported -5.2%.

Copyright ©2012 Mark Shore. Contact the author for permission for republication at info@shorecapmgmt.com Mark Shore has more than 20 years of experience in the futures markets and managed futures, publishes research, consults on alternative investments and conducts educational workshops. www.shorecapmgmt.com

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September 2012 Unemployment Report Forecast

10/5/2012

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By Mark Shore

Today at 7:30am (Central time) the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September 2012 Non-Farm Payrolls report.

The market is forecasting a U-3 unemployment  rate to remain stable at 8.1% and 120k net new jobs. August reported 96k.

Average workweek hours forecasted to remain stable at 34.4 hours per week.

It is more important to focus on jobs created than the U-3 rate. Also jobs created after discounting for government jobs. What happens to the U-6 rate?

Copyright ©2012 Mark Shore. Contact the author for permission for republication at info@shorecapmgmt.com Mark Shore has more than 20 years of experience in the futures markets and managed futures, publishes research, consults on alternative investments and conducts educational workshops. www.shorecapmgmt.com

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Foreign Direct Investments: Globalizing Chicago's Economic Development Plans

8/18/2012

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The Chicago Council on Global Affairs Presents:

Foreign Direct Investments: Globalizing Chicago’s Economic Development Plans

The Chicago Council announces the release of its newest publication, Foreign Direct Investment: Globalizing Chicago’s Economic Development Plans, a report from an independent working group of twenty-five Chicago business and civic leaders.

Click for the background of the study. The study builds on the March 2011 “A Plan for Capturing Chicago’s Global Opportunity”

One year in the making, the report shows that Chicago lags behind its national and international counterparts in attracting foreign direct investment, resources needed to ensure that Chicago remains globally competitive.

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IL February Unemployment Rate Falls

4/8/2012

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_The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the Regional and State Employment and Unemployment Summary on Friday March 30, 2012.

“Employment increased in 42 states and the District of Columbia and decreased in 8 states” according to the BLS.
The largest February increases were Ohio 28,300, Texas 27,900 and New York 24,700. Illinois increased employment by 6,500.

The BLS also reported 29 states experienced unemployment rate decreases, 8 states experienced an increase and 13 states and D.C. were unchanged.

Since the recent peak at 10.1% in August 2011, the Illinois unemployment rate continues to trend lower as it fell from 9.4% in January to 9.1% in February.

During the financial crisis the unemployment rate peaked at 11.4% in January 2010 and has bounced between 9.3% and 10.3% over the last two years.

Read more

Copyright ©2012 Mark Shore. Contact the author for permission for republication at info@shorecapmgmt.com www.shorecapmgmt.com Mark Shore publishes research, consults on alternative investments and conducts educational workshops. Mark Shore is also an Adjunct Professor at DePaul University's Kellstadt Graduate School of Business in Chicago where he teaches a managed futures/ global macro course.
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Initial View of Feb 2012 Unemployment Rate

3/9/2012

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By Mark Shore

The Feb 2012 non-farm payroll increased by 227k. The Private Sector increased by 233k.

The Dec and Jan non-farm payroll jobs were revised upward by 61k new jobs.

U-3 unemployment rate remained stable at 8.3%, however the U-6 rate dropped from 15.1% to 14.9%.

As we noted in last night's article on the preview of the Feb jobs report, the U-6 and job creation numbers are more important to focus on than the U-3 rate.

Over the weekend we will crunch the numbers. Stay tuned for more deets!

Copyright ©2012 Mark Shore. Contact the author for permission for republication at info@shorecapmgmt.com www.shorecapmgmt.com Mark Shore publishes research, consults on alternative investments and conducts educational workshops. Mark Shore is also an Adjunct Professor at DePaul University's Kellstadt Graduate School of Business in Chicago where he teaches a managed futures/ global macro course.
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Preview of February 2012 Unemployment Rate

3/8/2012

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_ By Mark Shore
3/8/2012

On March 9th, 2012 the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the February Unemployment rate at 8:30am EST.  Regardless of the reported seasonally adjusted U-3 Unemployment Rate, the more important focus should be on the number of jobs created in the private sector and the U-6 unemployment rate and some of the other underlying metrics.

The BLS defines the U-3 rate, sometimes called the headline rate of unemployment as workers seeking jobs in the last four weeks. The U-6 rate, sometimes called the underutilization rate includes the U-3 rate plus workers who have taken part-time jobs because they can’t find full-time employment plus workers who are discouraged from seeking jobs. More of this can be found in an article I wrote in 2009 Redefining the unemployment rate.

The January U-3 rate was reported at 8.3%. The rate peaked at 10% in October 2009.  The January U-6 rate was reported at 15.1% after peaking at 17.1% in October 2009.

As reported by Yahoo finance, the consensus for the March report is 8.3% and job creation is estimated between 206k to 250k.

The phrase “unemployment rate is a lagging indicator” usually refers to the fact of job seekers becoming more confident of finding a job after the economy begins to grow and more jobs are available. As this happens the unemployment rate can actually increase because more job seekers are being counted into the U-3 rate as they more actively seek employment.

Therefore focusing on net job creation in the private sector and the U-6 rate are more important than the U-3 rate.

Copyright ©2012 Mark Shore. Contact the author for permission for republication at info@shorecapmgmt.com www.shorecapmgmt.com Mark Shore publishes research, consults on alternative investments and conducts educational workshops. Mark Shore is also an Adjunct Professor at DePaul University's Kellstadt Graduate School of Business in Chicago where he teaches a managed futures/ global macro course.



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NY Loses Jobs in October

11/26/2011

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_Tuesday Nov 22, 2011 the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their October 2011 Regional and State Employment and Unemployment report (the October statistics are preliminary). A generally positive trend across the country in increased employment was found.

However, the report is mixed with increased job creation and increased unemployment rates based on the U-3 definition of unemployment (seeking a job in the last four weeks).

From September to October the nonfarm payroll employment increased in 39 states and the District of Columbia. Employment decreased in 11 states.

New York lost 8,300 nonfarm payroll jobs in October, making it one of the top three states for job loss in October 2011. The other states included WI with -9,700 and MN -6,100.

The leading states for job creation in October 2011 were IL with 30,000 new jobs, CA with 25,700 and VA with 14,000 new jobs.

From a year earlier, nonfarm payroll employment increased in 45 states and the District of Columbia. Employment decreased in 5 states. CA led the direction with 239,100 new jobs created over the past year followed by TX with 231,600 and FL with 93,900 new jobs created. GA had the largest decrease of employment with 33,300 jobs lost over the past year.

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    The postings on this site are not recommendations for trades and should not be perceived as such. Losses may occur from trading futures and options. Please talk to your financial advisor before trading futures or options. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

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