_The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the Regional and State Employment and Unemployment Summary on Friday March 30, 2012.

“Employment increased in 42 states and the District of Columbia and decreased in 8 states” according to the BLS.
The largest February increases were Ohio 28,300, Texas 27,900 and New York 24,700. Illinois increased employment by 6,500.

The BLS also reported 29 states experienced unemployment rate decreases, 8 states experienced an increase and 13 states and D.C. were unchanged.

Since the recent peak at 10.1% in August 2011, the Illinois unemployment rate continues to trend lower as it fell from 9.4% in January to 9.1% in February.

During the financial crisis the unemployment rate peaked at 11.4% in January 2010 and has bounced between 9.3% and 10.3% over the last two years.

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Copyright ©2012 Mark Shore. Contact the author for permission for republication at info@shorecapmgmt.com www.shorecapmgmt.com Mark Shore publishes research, consults on alternative investments and conducts educational workshops. Mark Shore is also an Adjunct Professor at DePaul University's Kellstadt Graduate School of Business in Chicago where he teaches a managed futures/ global macro course.

By Mark Shore

The Feb 2012 non-farm payroll increased by 227k. The Private Sector increased by 233k.

The Dec and Jan non-farm payroll jobs were revised upward by 61k new jobs.

U-3 unemployment rate remained stable at 8.3%, however the U-6 rate dropped from 15.1% to 14.9%.

As we noted in last night's article on the preview of the Feb jobs report, the U-6 and job creation numbers are more important to focus on than the U-3 rate.

Over the weekend we will crunch the numbers. Stay tuned for more deets!

Copyright ©2012 Mark Shore. Contact the author for permission for republication at info@shorecapmgmt.com www.shorecapmgmt.com Mark Shore publishes research, consults on alternative investments and conducts educational workshops. Mark Shore is also an Adjunct Professor at DePaul University's Kellstadt Graduate School of Business in Chicago where he teaches a managed futures/ global macro course.

_ By Mark Shore
3/8/2012

On March 9th, 2012 the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the February Unemployment rate at 8:30am EST.  Regardless of the reported seasonally adjusted U-3 Unemployment Rate, the more important focus should be on the number of jobs created in the private sector and the U-6 unemployment rate and some of the other underlying metrics.

The BLS defines the U-3 rate, sometimes called the headline rate of unemployment as workers seeking jobs in the last four weeks. The U-6 rate, sometimes called the underutilization rate includes the U-3 rate plus workers who have taken part-time jobs because they can’t find full-time employment plus workers who are discouraged from seeking jobs. More of this can be found in an article I wrote in 2009 Redefining the unemployment rate.

The January U-3 rate was reported at 8.3%. The rate peaked at 10% in October 2009.  The January U-6 rate was reported at 15.1% after peaking at 17.1% in October 2009.

As reported by Yahoo finance, the consensus for the March report is 8.3% and job creation is estimated between 206k to 250k.

The phrase “unemployment rate is a lagging indicator” usually refers to the fact of job seekers becoming more confident of finding a job after the economy begins to grow and more jobs are available. As this happens the unemployment rate can actually increase because more job seekers are being counted into the U-3 rate as they more actively seek employment.

Therefore focusing on net job creation in the private sector and the U-6 rate are more important than the U-3 rate.

Copyright ©2012 Mark Shore. Contact the author for permission for republication at info@shorecapmgmt.com www.shorecapmgmt.com Mark Shore publishes research, consults on alternative investments and conducts educational workshops. Mark Shore is also an Adjunct Professor at DePaul University's Kellstadt Graduate School of Business in Chicago where he teaches a managed futures/ global macro course.

_Tuesday Nov 22, 2011 the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their October 2011 Regional and State Employment and Unemployment report (the October statistics are preliminary). A generally positive trend across the country in increased employment was found.

However, the report is mixed with increased job creation and increased unemployment rates based on the U-3 definition of unemployment (seeking a job in the last four weeks).

From September to October the nonfarm payroll employment increased in 39 states and the District of Columbia. Employment decreased in 11 states.

New York lost 8,300 nonfarm payroll jobs in October, making it one of the top three states for job loss in October 2011. The other states included WI with -9,700 and MN -6,100.

The leading states for job creation in October 2011 were IL with 30,000 new jobs, CA with 25,700 and VA with 14,000 new jobs.

From a year earlier, nonfarm payroll employment increased in 45 states and the District of Columbia. Employment decreased in 5 states. CA led the direction with 239,100 new jobs created over the past year followed by TX with 231,600 and FL with 93,900 new jobs created. GA had the largest decrease of employment with 33,300 jobs lost over the past year.

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