Category: - Shore Capital Research LLC

Trading European Volatility with VSTOXX Futures & Options

1/13/2018

Mark Shore (Shore Capital Research) & Megan Morgan (Eurex Exchange) discuss details of the construction of the European VSTOXX® volatility index and the similarities and differences from the VIX, the growth of VSTOXX® futures and options and utilizing VSTOXX® derivatives for directional trading and spreading.

The webinar also dicusses the newly listed VSTOXX® Options on Futures, which are now available for US traders and investors since February 2017.

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Mark Shore has more than 30 years of experience in the futures markets and managed futures, publishes research, consults on alternative investments and conducts educational workshops. www.shorecapmgmt.com

Mark Shore is also an Adjunct Professor at DePaul University’s Kellstadt Graduate School of Business, where he teaches the only known accredited managed futures course in the country. He is also a Board Member of the Arditti Center for Risk Management at DePaul University.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The opinions expressed are only for educational purposes. Please talk to your financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

VSTOXX®/VIX volatility spread behavior during recent volatility events

12/16/2016

By Mark Shore
In past articles I’ve discussed the various behaviors of the VSTOXX®/VIX spread. This article follows my last article “Utilizing a European volatility index for Pan-European volatility” examining VSTOXX® behavior in recent volatility events relative to various European equity indexes.

The Brexit election and the U.S. election are now behind us. Several European elections are on the horizon in 2017. And there doesn’t seem to be a shortage of ideas being discussed for potential future macro volatility events. This article examines the behavior of the VSTOXX®/VIX spread during recent volatility events. Could the understanding of the spread’s behavior during past volatility events offer some insight for future events?

Liquidity is always READ MORE

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Copyright ©2016 Mark Shore. Contact Mark Shore for permission for republication at [email protected] Mark Shore has more than 25 years of experience in the futures markets and managed futures, publishes research, consults on alternative investments and conducts educational workshops. www.shorecapmgmt.com

Mark Shore is also an Adjunct Professor at DePaul University’s Kellstadt Graduate School of Business, where he teaches the only known accredited managed futures course in the country. He is also a Board Member of the Arditti Center for Risk Management at DePaul University.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is risk of loss when investing in futures and options. Futures and options can be a volatile and risky investment; only use appropriate risk capital; this investment is not for everyone. The opinions expressed are solely those of the author and are only for educational purposes. Please talk to your financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Utilizing a European volatility index for Pan-European volatility

11/8/2016

In past articles, I’ve discussed the negative correlation between the VSTOXX® Volatility index and the EURO STOXX 50® Index and how the volatility index tends to rally when equities decline (downside volatility).

The recent passing of the Brexit vote on 23 June 2016 introduced immediate uncertainty and downside volatility to the global capital markets. The results of several upcoming European elections could introduce more uncertainty and volatility into the capital markets. According to Bloomberg News, 40 percent of the EU economy will be voting in 2017.[i]

Market reactions to the Brexit vote are still being READ MORE

Follow Mark Shore on Twitter, Facebook and Linkedin

Copyright ©2016 Mark Shore. Contact Mark Shore for permission for republication at [email protected] Mark Shore has more than 25 years of experience in the futures markets and managed futures, publishes research, consults on alternative investments and conducts educational workshops. www.shorecapmgmt.com

Mark Shore is also an Adjunct Professor at DePaul University’s Kellstadt Graduate School of Business, where he teaches the only known accredited managed futures course in the country. He is also a Board Member of the Arditti Center for Risk Management at DePaul University.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is risk of loss when investing in futures and options. Futures and options can be a volatile and risky investment; only use appropriate risk capital; this investment is not for everyone. The opinions expressed are solely those of the author and are only for educational purposes. Please talk to your financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Market Timing, Big Data and Machine Learning

8/28/2016

The Chicago Chapter of QWAFAFEW Presents:
Market Timing, Big Data and Machine Learning

Overview
There is a stigma against market timing. This stigma existed for good reasons, but the explosion of vast data sets and new analytical techniques has now made timing the market possible. Just as it was considered irresponsible to time the market over the last 30 years, it will be considered irresponsible NOT to time the market in the next 30 years.

Speakers:
Blair Hull
Chairman, Hull Investments, LLC
and
Matthew Dixon
Assistant Professor of Finance at the Illinois Institute of Technology and the founder of Quiota LLC

Date: Thursday, September 22, 2016
Time: 5:00 p.m. - 7:00 p.m.
Venue: To be announced shortly in downtown Chicago

For more information and registration Click Here

There will be light food, drinks and networking until the presentations starts at 5:30pm.

About QWAFAFEW: (pronounced “quaff-a-few”, Quantitative Work Alliance for Applied Finance & Economic Wisdom) is an informal organization for discussions of quantitative investment topics. QWAFAFEW has active chapters in Chicago, Boston, Hartford, New York, Princeton, Denver, and San Francisco.

What Does A Widening VSTOXX / VIX Spread Mean To The Underlying Equity Markets?

8/22/2016

Summary

Over the past week the VSTOXX / VIX spread narrowed and then widened as the EURO STOXX 50 Index declined.
A one and two standard deviation move would price the spread between 8.8 and 12.5.
As a sentiment indicator could an overbought VSTOXX / VIX spread imply at least short-term support in the EURO STOXX 50 Index & the S&P 500?

My recent article " VSTOXX / VIX Spread May Imply An Equity Correction" discussed some of the basics of the spread and potential signals it may offer about the underlying EURO STOXX 50 index and the S&P 500 index. I received a lot of positive feedback and demand for this analysis, so I will be updating the spread data and analysis on a regular basis. Think of the spread as
READ MORE

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Copyright ©2016 Mark Shore. Contact Mark Shore for permission for republication at [email protected] Mark Shore has more than 25 years of experience in the futures markets and managed futures, publishes research, consults on alternative investments and conducts educational workshops.www.shorecapmgmt.com

Mark Shore is also an Adjunct Professor at DePaul University’s Kellstadt Graduate School of Business, where he teaches the only known accredited managed futures course in the country. He is also a Board Member of the Arditti Center for Risk Management at DePaul University.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is risk of loss when investing in futures and options. Futures and options can be a volatile and risky investment; only use appropriate risk capital; this investment is not for everyone. The opinions expressed are solely those of the author and are only for educational purposes. Please talk to your financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Is The VIX Forward Curve Giving Clues Of An Overbought Equity Market?

8/18/2016

Summary

The pricing of the $VIX futures back months have remained relatively stable as the front months recently declined.
The longer the spot and front month remain at the lows, the higher the probability for a correction in $SPX.
The current state of the forward curve may be giving clues to the "shape of things to come".

Recently the market has discounted equity declines with the focus
READ MORE

Follow Mark Shore on Twitter, Facebook and Linkedin

Copyright ©2016 Mark Shore. Contact Mark Shore for permission for republication at [email protected] Mark Shore has more than 25 years of experience in the futures markets and managed futures, publishes research, consults on alternative investments and conducts educational workshops.www.shorecapmgmt.com

Mark Shore is also an Adjunct Professor at DePaul University’s Kellstadt Graduate School of Business, where he teaches the only known accredited managed futures course in the country. He is also a Board Member of the Arditti Center for Risk Management at DePaul University.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is risk of loss when investing in futures and options. Futures and options can be a volatile and risky investment; only use appropriate risk capital; this investment is not for everyone. The opinions expressed are solely those of the author and are only for educational purposes. Please talk to your financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

VSTOXX / VIX Spread May Imply An Equity Correction

8/11/2016

Summary

The VSTOXX / VIX spread tends to widen when the volatility indexes rally and equity markets decline.
The longer the volatility indexes sit at their lows and the spread sits near its average (low), the greater the probability for the equity markets to experience a correction.
Currently the VSTOXX / VIX spread is narrowing from an overbought range.

As I'm sure many of you are familiar with the VIX ($VIX) volatility index that measures the market's perspective of implied volatility 30 days into the future. The index is found at the CBOE. It is also known as the "fear index" as it tends to rally when the S&P 500 declines (downside volatility).

There is another lesser known, but growing volatility index called VSTOXX found at the Eurex Exchange. READ MORE

Follow Mark Shore on Twitter, Facebook and Linkedin

Copyright ©2016 Mark Shore. Contact Mark Shore for permission for republication at [email protected] Mark Shore has more than 25 years of experience in the futures markets and managed futures, publishes research, consults on alternative investments and conducts educational workshops.www.shorecapmgmt.com

Mark Shore is also an Adjunct Professor at DePaul University’s Kellstadt Graduate School of Business, where he teaches the only known accredited managed futures course in the country. He is also a Board Member of the Arditti Center for Risk Management at DePaul University.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is risk of loss when investing in futures and options. Futures and options can be a volatile and risky investment; only use appropriate risk capital; this investment is not for everyone. The opinions expressed are solely those of the author and are only for educational purposes. Please talk to your financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Correlation of the U.S. Dollar to Commodities

7/17/2016

Summary

Commodities are often quoted in U.S. dollars, making commodities cheaper or more expensive to the rest of the world based on the direction of the dollar.
The 12-month and 36-month rolling correlations of $DXY to S&P GSCI note an increasing negative correlation.
Longer-term directional moves of the U.S. dollar may imply the general direction of commodities as a sector.

I recently spoke at an ETF conference about commodities. During the panel discussion I mentioned that commodities includes a lesser known
READ MORE

Follow Mark Shore on Twitter, Facebook and Linkedin

Copyright ©2016 Mark Shore. Contact Mark Shore for permission for republication at [email protected] Mark Shore has more than 25 years of experience in the futures markets and managed futures, publishes research, consults on alternative investments and conducts educational workshops.www.shorecapmgmt.com

Mark Shore is also an Adjunct Professor at DePaul University’s Kellstadt Graduate School of Business, where he teaches the only known accredited managed futures course in the country. He is also a Board Member of the Arditti Center for Risk Management at DePaul University.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is risk of loss when investing in futures and options. Futures and options can be a volatile and risky investment; only use appropriate risk capital; this investment is not for everyone. The opinions expressed are solely those of the author and are only for educational purposes. Please talk to your financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Seasonality of WTI Crude Oil Futures

7/10/2016

Summary

WTI Crude Oil futures is currently priced around the 30-year average. This makes the market on par with the longer-term average of the front-month futures contract.
The 30-, 15- and five-year seasonality averages of WTI Crude Oil front-month futures show declines in the second half of the year.
The seasonality data offers evidence for crude oil to form a long-term bottom.

Earlier this year, crude oil bounced off its multi-year low, and many market participants are now READ MORE

Follow Mark Shore on Twitter, Facebook and Linkedin

Copyright ©2016 Mark Shore. Contact Mark Shore for permission for republication at [email protected] Mark Shore has more than 25 years of experience in the futures markets and managed futures, publishes research, consults on alternative investments and conducts educational workshops.www.shorecapmgmt.com

Mark Shore is also an Adjunct Professor at DePaul University’s Kellstadt Graduate School of Business, where he teaches the only known accredited managed futures course in the country. He is also a Board Member of the Arditti Center for Risk Management at DePaul University.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is risk of loss when investing in futures and options. Futures and options can be a volatile and risky investment; only use appropriate risk capital; this investment is not for everyone. The opinions expressed are solely those of the author and are only for educational purposes. Please talk to your financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Could a bond portfolio benefit from allocating to a volatility index?

5/27/2016

By Mark Shore

My last article discussed the advantages of a traditional portfolio allocating to a volatility index. The article concluded that the allocation to VSTOXX® Futures may offer advantages for a traditional portfolio of 60 percent stocks and 40 percent bonds. This article asks a similar question, what if the portfolio was only European bonds; would the allocation to a volatility index such as the VSTOXX® Index offer added value to a bond portfolio?

Investors will often perceive each component of their portfolio as standalone investments. However, the components should be viewed for how well they complement the portfolio. Think of it is a holistic approach to portfolio management. My prior analysis of a 60/40 portfolio allocating to the VSTOXX® Index was more direct as the EURO STOXX 50® Index is the underlying market for the VSTOXX® volatility index. However this analysis of bonds to VSTOXX® is a little more intricate because the relationship of the two markets is not necessarily direct, but they are connected.

Liquidity is always important to an investor or trader. Table 1 gives readers an
READ MORE

Follow Mark Shore on Twitter, Facebook and Linkedin

Copyright ©2015 Mark Shore. Contact Mark Shore for permission for republication at [email protected]

Mark Shore has more than 25 years of experience in the futures markets and managed futures, publishes research, consults on alternative investments & conducts educational workshops.
www.shorecapmgmt.com email: [email protected]

Mark Shore is also an Adjunct Professor at DePaul University’s Kellstadt Graduate School of Business, where he teaches the only known accredited managed futures course in the country. He is also a Board Member of the Arditti Center for Risk Management at DePaul University.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is risk of loss when investing in futures and options. Futures and options can be a volatile and risky investment; only use appropriate risk capital; this investment is not for everyone. The opinions expressed are solely those of the author and are only for educational purposes. Please talk to your financial advisor before making any investment decisions.