The corn market (basis December) peaked on 6/2/09 at $4.7350.  We were targeting $3.08 as a bottom in the corn market. On 7/22/09 the market made new lows at $3.1475. Due to the "cooler idea" summer weather potential for high yielding crop production, the corn market has been pressured to the downside. However, last week the USDA stated they were going to resurvey a number of corn states for a better idea of acreage. The thinking is that it will reduce the previously reported crop production estimate. This could cause corn to remain in a trading range for the next few weeks.

There is another side to the "cool ideal" growing weather. This could lead to an early freeze? Some are beginning to think there is a possibility for an early freeze. If so, we could be looking at a lower crop yield that would be bullish for the market.

Its always been said the two most powerful components to the grain market are weather conditions and exporting. If the world economy proves itself to start moving forward as the equity markets are currently perceiving, this could also be bullish for the market as more corn is exported.

On the upside the initial resistance is $3.28 to $3.33. If it breaks above this range, the next resistance level is $3.36 to $3.45. There is a major resistance at $3.60 to $3.69

The initial support level is $3.25 to $3.21. If the market breaks this level it will probably test the lows of last week.

The December wheat contract peaked on 6/1/09 at $7.2525. On 6/3/09 we received a longer term sell signal. By 7/7/09 the market had bottomed at $5.38 and has slowly tried to push higher as it appears to be building a base. This can also be seen in the corn and soybean markets. If the economy should prove to be stabilizing and recovering, the grain markets may find support in this situation. On 7/13/09 we received a new longer term buy signal.

The first resistance level is $5.78 to $5.83. If the market continues upward the next level of support is $5.96 to 6.08.

An initial support level is found at $5.70 to $5.64.

As everyone has been following the July soybeans contract from $9 to almost $13 in the past few months, there has been a widening of the July November spread from about $1 to $2.

On 6/12/09 November beans topped at $10.9950 and the market began to consolidate. On 6/15/09 we received a sell signal and the market has fallen about a dollar since topping in mid June. Our initial target of $9.90 was reached.

There is major support in around $9.80. If this level holds, the next resistance level is $10.02 to $10.10. If the market should break above $9.96 we could see at least a short term bounce up to $10.10 to $10.16.

If the market doesn't hold the recent lows, the next support level would be $9.70 to $9.60. If that level is taken out, the next support level would be $9.40 to $9.15.

From a fundamental standpoint, recent talk over the weekend of China's
economy growing by 9% and discussions last night of Japan's potential to have passed the worst of the recession, may cause the grain markets to rally, at least in the short term. Thus causing commodity related currencies to also rally. Exports have always been a strong inducement for the grain markets to rally and this time would be no exception. However, if the dollar should have a strong appreciation in the near future as some are expecting, it could slow or cap the upside potential of the grain markets.

Due to the Memorial day holiday, the Crop Progress report was released today. Once again, the report suggests a bullish sign for soybeans and spring wheat. Corn continues to get closer to its 5 year average. This can be seen as corn has recently been caught in a 12 cent rally, while wheat and soybeans (especially soybeans) continues to rally.

Corn:
82% planted
62% last week
86% last yr
93% 5 yr average

The largest delays for corn are found in IL and IN:
IL- 62% Planted, 96% 5 yr average
IN - 55% Planted, 89% 5 yr average

Soybeans:
48% planted
25% last week
49% last yr
65% 5 yr average

The largest delays for soybeans are found in IL, IN, KY and ND:
IL- 12% Planted, 69% 5 yr average
IN - 25% Planted, 64% 5 yr average
KY - 13% Planted, 43% 5 yr average
ND - 27% Planted, 67% 5yr average

Spring Wheat:
79% planted
50% last week
97% last year
95% 5 yr average

The largest delays for wheat are found in MN and ND:
MN - 71% Planted, 96% 5 yr average
ND - 69% Planted, 94% 5 yr average

Oats:
95% planted
88% last week
97% last week
98% 5 yr average

After the markets closed today, the USDA released their latest Crop Progress Report for planting. As this planting season has been hit with a lot of rain, the farmers have found it difficult to plant for this season in a timely manner. The below stats are still showing bullish figures for the grain markets. Although corn seems to be getting closer to where it should be at this time of year. Soybeans and wheat are still far from where they need to be. If overseas demand should increase and planting doesn't near the usual percentage, we could see much higher grain prices later in the year.  Stay tuned.

Corn:
62% planted
48% last week
70% last yr
85% 5 yr average

Soybeans:
25% planted
14% last week
25% last yr
44% 5 yr average

Spring Wheat:
50% planted
35% last week
92% last year
90% 5 yr average

Oats:
88% planted
80% last week
92% last week
95% 5 yr average