Weather and exports are the two major components that can move grain prices. Buried in the exporting concept is the question of what happens to the dollar as many commodities are priced in dollars.
The ideal weather conditions have been pressuring pricing downward since 6/11/09 when Nov soybeans topped at $10.9950. But increased exporting potential partially caused by the down trending dollar and demand have been supporting the market in recent weeks.
On 7/20/09 we received a longer term buy signal for Nov soybeans. Although the market remained in a trading range during this time, it was finding an upward bias. We needed to see the market hold above $9.33 to prove more bullish. On 7/30/09 the market rallied from the previous day's close of $9.1675 to a high of $9.8450.
We believe this recent market rally has legs for support. The market is currently in a major resistance area of $9.77 to $9.91. If it should break above this range, the next resistance level would be $10.21 to $10.49 and possibly testing the June highs. Ultimately the market could reach $11.30 to $12.
The first level of support for Nov soybeans is $9.64 to $9.61. $9.54 would be a major support level.