Since 8/3/09 the S&P market has moved from an incredibly powered upward momentum market to a back and filling market with still an upward bias. On 8/7/09 (basis the Sept contract) the market made a new high of 1016.00 since bottoming last March. Since the last bottoming phase in July, the market has blown beyond most of our target and resistance areas. A few weeks ago we determined a very strong resistance level at 1017. Once the market reached 1016, it has backed off and twice tried to test this high. We noticed an interesting moment this past week on 8/13/09, as the emini DJ (Sept contract) made new highs, but was not confirmed as the S&P did not make new highs.
On 8/13/09 and 8/14/09 the market reached 1015.25 and 1015.75 respectively, but couldn't take out 1016. As the summer rolls on with lower volume and most of the earnings now reported, we believe the market may maintain a consolidation phase for the next couple of weeks, but still holding an upward bias.
In proving the tightness of the range with an upward bias, the market finally reached a longer term sell signal on 8/12/09 after maintaining a longer term buy signal since 7/15/09. On 8/14/09 we received a longer term buy signal. However we still have shorter term sell signals in place, but that could change any day.
If the market takes out the high our next major resistance level is 1030 to 1045. After that 1060 to 1075 would be the next major resistance level. If the economy continues to prove it is stabilizing along with other economies beginning to show they are improving growth as we saw this past week, we could see the S&P futures at 1160 to 1170 by year's end. Right now the very upper end of our targets is around 1250, but don't bet your broker's bonus check for that one to appear quickly.
If the market continues to move sideways and there is mounting evidence of this to occur, the next support level is around 992. If that level is broken we could see the market testing the 985 to 971 range. Ultimately the 930 to 940 area would probably create a bottoming phase.
On 8/13/09 and 8/14/09 the market reached 1015.25 and 1015.75 respectively, but couldn't take out 1016. As the summer rolls on with lower volume and most of the earnings now reported, we believe the market may maintain a consolidation phase for the next couple of weeks, but still holding an upward bias.
In proving the tightness of the range with an upward bias, the market finally reached a longer term sell signal on 8/12/09 after maintaining a longer term buy signal since 7/15/09. On 8/14/09 we received a longer term buy signal. However we still have shorter term sell signals in place, but that could change any day.
If the market takes out the high our next major resistance level is 1030 to 1045. After that 1060 to 1075 would be the next major resistance level. If the economy continues to prove it is stabilizing along with other economies beginning to show they are improving growth as we saw this past week, we could see the S&P futures at 1160 to 1170 by year's end. Right now the very upper end of our targets is around 1250, but don't bet your broker's bonus check for that one to appear quickly.
If the market continues to move sideways and there is mounting evidence of this to occur, the next support level is around 992. If that level is broken we could see the market testing the 985 to 971 range. Ultimately the 930 to 940 area would probably create a bottoming phase.
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